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Sunday, September 19, 1999
Next 100 years Will be an Adventure
By Colleen Heild
Journal Staff Writer
It won't exactly be the "Outer Limits," or even a rerun of "Star Trek." But by all predictions, the next century is going to be an adventure.
We probably won't rely on space ships for the daily commute. But we could be cruising on automated highways where specially equipped vehicles travel under computer control.
A miracle cure for cancer is doubtful. But many cancers might be treated as chronic, not deadly, diseases.
A woman is likely to win the presidency of the United States within 50 years. But sorry, ladies, even in this dawn of high tech, pantyhose are still expected to run.
The forecasters agree: We will continue to have far more information and many more choices. We will have more opportunities and conveniences.
But we will have to face extensive challenges and ramifications the new advances bring -- a loss of community, a loss of privacy and new moral dilemmas.
"There's no question but that the world's people will have a much higher quality of life, in material things," says Lowell Catlett, an agricultural scientist and futurist based at New Mexico State University. "In the next 50 years, (the advancement) will be an even faster pace than has occurred in the last 50 years."
Major changes are expected in medicine, biology, technology and privacy rights. In addition, society is on the brink of diving deeper into the vast new world currently defined by a cursor and a Web address.
Cyber century
Many experts agree that personal computers will shape the parameters of society in the next century -- where we work, where we live, and how we live and learn.
Now you can order a CD from your computer. Not too far down the road, you can visit your doctor via cyberspace and get prescriptions filled.
Sherman McCorkle, chairman of the Governor's Business Advisory Council in New Mexico, predicted that much of retail merchandise will be ordered online.
"Think of it this way: 100 years ago, when the J.C. Penney catalog came out, that revolutionized retail," McCorkle said. "What's happening in retail is being revolutionized again."
He predicts locally owned "boutique services stores" will replace big 200,000-square-foot retail buildings.
Some see a social downside to this life-by-computer.
"People will vote by computer, will order things completely by computer, and they won't have any interaction with anyone else," said Albuquerque attorney William S. Dixon. "Our sense of community will totally be lost. We're going to abandon the idea of public forums in public places."
Larry Barr, a retired administrator of private schools in Santa Fe and Switzerland who also worked at public schools, expresses another concern -- relying on computers too heavily in the classroom.
He questions whether all that information will actually make tomorrow's children smarter.
Computers have their advantages, but reliance upon them is not going to encourage the thinking process, Barr said.
"To me smarter means the ability to solve problems, to figure it out, to question, to really struggle with it. That's what I think is going to be missing. I think that's part of a really educated person."
Major breakthroughs
Major breakthroughs in medicine and health are forecast for the new millennium.
For example, doctors within the next 10 or 15 years will be able to tell a patient his or her chances of eventually suffering from a whole range of diseases -- from cancer to schizophrenia -- just by drawing a little blood, said Robert Rubin, chief executive officer at Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute.
Medications will be on the market to improve treatment of cardiac disease, inflammatory diseases and immune diseases such as lupus. Artificial bladders could be available within 5 to 10 years, and that could lead to development of an artificial pancreas, heart and kidneys in the next 50 to 75 years, Rubin said.
Current research on blood vessels could be tapped to inhibit tumors from growing bigger, Rubin said.
The concept of taking one person's body part and attaching it to somebody else is going to be the "big, big move" in the 21st century for reconstructive surgery, said Dr. Patrick Hudson, a cosmetic surgeon in Albuquerque who has clients all over the world.
Hudson predicts more medical methods will be found to retard aging in the skin "to such an extent that a lot of the aging operations we do wouldn't be necessary."
A growing number of researchers and futurists predict that within 20 years an anti-aging drug will be developed that will stall aging. That view is disputed by others. But most experts predict that more people will live into their 100s, perhaps up to 800,000 people in 2050 compared to 70,000 living in the United States today.
Population worldwide is supposed to peak at 8 billion in the year 2050. But that isn't likely to drain the world's resources, Catlett said.
State Land Office officials predict that agriculture and environmental communities will draw closer together in the new millennium because ranchers are beginning to understand issues such as riparian studies that affect the health of the land.
Catlett said dramatic advances have occurred in biology so "we're now at the cusp of being able to really take what we know and open up the world." That is particularly true, he said, in the relationship of food and medicine. "We're going to start finding out so many things about the food that we take that have tremendous implications to our physical well-being."
A generation ago the average home was 1,400 square feet. Today the average home is 2,200 square feet and uses a third the amount of energy to heat and cool, he said.
"So can you have more material well-being and not have a degrading impact on the environment? The answer is obviously yes, if you're smart about it," Catlett said, "because we've got ample evidence that we can."
Political ramifications
F. Chris Garcia, interim provost at the University of New Mexico, predicts society will be multiracial and multicultural to a much greater degree.
"Much of what happens in the future is, I think, greatly dependent upon how the new immigrants are socialized into politics in the U.S. and what values and interests they bring."
He believes the United States will have a female vice president probably in the next two or three elections, adding, "I would not at all be surprised if we have a woman president in the next 50 years or sooner."
Garcia said technology will probably help increase voter participation to the point where people someday might vote via computer, "but then we have to worry about other things."
"The main thing is interest in and concern for public affairs. Do we really want to have somebody vote who doesn't pay any attention, doesn't have any knowledge, or doesn't care?"
There is bound to be soul searching when technological advances clash with personal privacy.
"There's no reason why you can't have video cams that are so small they can be carefully disguised in light fixtures, in public parks," Catlett said. That would prove a boon to police agencies that could videotape a crime in process and later catch the perpetrator. Such technology could be used by employers in the workplace for personnel reasons, Catlett said, "so there's never a question about an oral contract."
But not everyone might agree to such monitoring, and society will be forced to redefine what privacy means, Catlett said.
Dixon predicts the eroding of constitutional rights.
"The Fourth and Fifth Amendments will become dimly remembered constitutional artifacts of a bygone age," Dixon contends. The Fourth Amendment guards against unreasonable search and seizure. The Fifth Amendment provides for due process and protects defendants in criminal cases from being forced to testify against themselves.
Changing population
The prescription for the next century: Plan to retire at a later age -- maybe 70 or older.
And baby boomers, who have had relatively few biological children, might increasingly have to rely on stepchildren and stepgrandchildren for help as they approach old age.
The good news: home health care and service programs such as Meals-on-Wheels will increasingly be emphasized over institutional care.
Dramatic changes already occurring in the traditional nuclear family -- increases in divorce, single-parent households -- will take on new meaning in the next century, experts say.
Experts predict an increasing acceptance of nontraditional homes, such as those where the parents are of the same sex.
More than a third of children born today will live in some kind of stepparent household by the time they are 18, researchers say.
Juvenile violence will continue to take a toll. Based solely on increased number of youths in the United States, the number of teen killers is expected to grow to 5,000 a year by 2005 from the current 4,000.
Some experts say elementary schools -- hoping to head off future juvenile violence -- might want to teach children how to develop social skills to help them relate better to their peers and adults.
Government agencies, schools, and religious organizations will increasingly be called upon to help cement the new family systems.
"The millennium is just a date, yet it's an important date," said Rabbi Joseph Black of Congregation Albert in Albuquerque. "Any opportunity we have to rethink our priorities and our beliefs and our systems that are already in place is helpful and vital."
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