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Sunday, September 19, 1999
Potential for safe nuclear energy often overshadowed by fear
By Sig Hecker
Guest Essay
Sig Hecker was director of Los Alamos National Laboratory for 12 years, guiding it through the end of the Cold War before returning to a senior research position in November 1997. In his current job, he has made numerous trips to Russia, where U.S. and Russian scientists are cooperating to build security systems to guard against theft of Russian nuclear weapons materials.
The nuclear age dawned in New Mexico with the explosion of the first atomic bomb near Socorro on July 16, 1945, changing the world forever. Fifty years from now, will mankind look back and say it changed the world for the better? Actions taken by the United States over the next few years will to a large extent determine the answer.
Radioactivity was discovered just before the turn of the 20th century. Almost immediately it took on a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde-like public persona. Scientists and science fiction writers extolled the virtues of "limitless" energy while warning the public of the danger of blowing up the world with an "atomic bomb."
These public musings took on a stark reality when atomic bombs were detonated over Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end World War II. The Cold War drove home to the public the possibility of a nuclear Armageddon.
However, instead of "blowing up the world," the awesome destructive power of nuclear weapons made mankind realize its collective mortality. As we look at deaths caused in war over the centuries, we find that man's ability to perfect instruments of war reached epidemic proportions during the first half of this century -- nearly 90 million people dead. But 1945 marked a discontinuity in the affairs of nations, and despite the fact that Cold War rivals built a mind-numbing 100,000 nuclear weapons, none have been exploded in anger since 1945. Nuclear weapons have deterred the escalation of other wars into global conflicts.
During the Manhattan Project, scientists tapped the energy of the nucleus for the first time -- it offered an energy potential with "factors of millions" beyond what mankind achieved before. Immediately, scientists began to tap this potential for energy production. Today, nearly 20 percent of the world's electricity is generated by nuclear power plants. Energy resources require an outlook spanning hundreds of years, unlike computers, which have been doubling in capability every 18 months. As we look at mankind's energy use since the Industrial Revolution, we find that energy sources typically have lifetimes around 200 years -- being either depleted or otherwise found unsuitable. Clearly, we must lay the foundation for a secure and clean energy for future generations. Nuclear energy has enormous potential because natural uranium contains substantial nuclear fuel and breeder reactors can extend the lifetimes of uranium and thorium deposits more than a hundredfold.
However, nuclear's full potential has never been realized because of concerns of diverting nuclear fuels for nuclear bombs and because the public remains unconvinced that scientists and governments can safely handle nuclear waste.
The end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union present both a great danger and an enormous opportunity. The danger arises from potential diversion or theft of nuclear weapons or weapons-usable nuclear materials from an economically stressed and politically struggling Russia.
Theft of key nuclear ingredients could shorten the nuclear time scale of rogue nations by decades. It is in the national security interest of the United States to help Russia now to protect its nuclear enterprise from the potentially disastrous hardships of transforming its political and economic system.
The Cold War's end offers the opportunity to decrease the size of nuclear arsenals and the potential of turning military plutonium and highly enriched uranium into energy-producing fuel. Collaboration between the United States and Russia to prevent proliferation, respond to potential accidents or emergencies, deal with nuclear wastes, and define and enforce rules for nuclear technology exports could usher in a century of international nuclear cooperation that could clear the way for clean and abundant nuclear energy for mankind virtually free of nuclear peril.
However, the pace of nuclear cooperation with Russia must be accelerated over the next few years so one can look back and celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Manhattan Project as one of the greatest triumphs of mankind.
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