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Sunday, September 19, 1999
N.M. politics likely to reflect changing economies, population
By F. Chris Garcia
Guest Essay
A specialist in political behavior, American government and education, F. Chris Garcia is a political science professor and interim provost at the University of New Mexico.
He holds undergraduate and master's degrees from UNM and a doctorate in political science from the University of California-Davis. Garcia has been the recipient of many major research grants, and his research skills include fluency in Spanish and German.
Projecting what New Mexico's politics will look like in the year 2050 is chancy for political scientists, who feel relieved when our projections of election results made just a few days ahead of the election turn out to be accurate.
However, what the New Mexico governmental and political scene will be like in the next millennium can be projected based on some current trends.
One trend likely to continue is "thinking globally and acting locally." In some ways, our politics will be more internationalized and global, as the economy and culture head in that direction. In other ways, we will probably be more involved in very small-scale, localized community and neighborhood-based political activities. Changes in demography and technology will be among the primary factors driving political change.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES: There probably will be considerable change in the composition of the state's electorate, as our population is changing rapidly in composition as well as size. The New Mexican citizenry of 2050 will comprise many people who are recent residents coming from other states and new citizens coming from other countries.
The out-of-country immigrants will be mainly Hispanics, and along with the increased participation of Native Americans in extratribal politics, it is likely that a majority of the citizenry will be composed of groups now considered to be "minorities."
A significantly greater number of women will occupy high political offices. These groups' values will change the traditional ways of politics in New Mexico as their new perspectives affect their participation in politics.
POLITICAL PARTICIPATION: We are seeing a trend in participation towards a disengagement of the electorate and an increased professionalization of politics. Politics are increasingly conducted by professional politicians such as campaign managers, media consultants and paid political lobbyists.
This trend may increase to the point where there is a grassroots reaction and mobilization against this. The need for campaign finance reform may become so critical that New Mexico will join other states in public financing of campaigns.
So in the year 2050, participation will probably follow one of two paths, either increased professionalization with little popular participation, or a new grass-roots, locally based popular participation. Mass participation may be encouraged by instant and direct voting on issues and candidates over the Internet.
STRUCTURE OF GOVERNMENT: There is likely to be a consolidation of small governmental entities, such as our 89 school districts and over 100 municipalities into larger, perhaps regional, units, and perhaps a consolidation of cities and counties into metropolitan or regional governments.
POLITICAL PARTIES: We have had basically the same political parties for over 100 years nationally and in New Mexico since we became a state. Although there will be challenges by "third" parties that will shape and change the major parties, it is most likely the two current major parties will continue to be essentially the same grand coalitions.
ISSUES: New Mexico will likely become much more urbanized. This will mean a decreased focus on issues involving rural areas, small towns and small school districts as well as on issues such as mining, gas, oil and agriculture. It will mean an increased amount of politics and issues dealing with the topics of growth and the resulting overcrowding -- environmental degradation and pollution, transportation, a stressed infrastructure and the all-important politics of water.
If the economic gap between the "haves" and "haves much less" continues to increase, there could be a resultant class-based politics, if not the bugaboo of "class welfare."
EDUCATION: One of the biggest perennial issues in New Mexico is that of educational governance and politics. The focus and shape of education may change as students and citizens become able to access educational services at home, or anywhere they may be, via the Internet. The struggle over the political control of communications may approach the level of intensity now displayed as we debate the who, where and what of educational services.
Of course, all this could change since we know that the very act of making projections based on trends often itself changes those trends, and hence the projections themselves.
In any case, even the politics of New Mexico will probably not be immune from the sweeping changes in demographics, the information and communication revolutions, and the consequent globalization that will undoubtedly characterize the 21st century.
2000 
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