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New Mexico Science: A reporter's notebook about science and technology by John Fleck, Journal Science Writer E-Mail him | Web Feed | Latest Fleck Stories in the Albuquerque Journal
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Office of Technology Assessment Archive |
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Wednesday, July 23, 2008, at 10:44:12 ... created Wednesday, 23 July 2008
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When I first started reporting on government science and technology policy nearly two decades ago, the Office of Technology Assessment was a primary source for nearly any topic I was writing about. It produced crackerjack reports on a wide range of important issues. OTA died in 1995, but the office's remarkable body of work has been given new electronic home by the Federation of American Scientists (an organization that has a great tradition of providing web access to important government information): FAS Office of Technology Archive.
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Tuesday, July 22, 2008, at 17:11:43 ... created Tuesday, 22 July 2008
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The latest forecast gives moisture from Dolly a longshot chance of reaching New Mexico.
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Elasticity of Energy Supply |
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Monday, July 21, 2008, at 14:57:02 ... created Monday, 21 July 2008
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Today's lesson in "ask the energy economist" comes from a post by Daniel Hall on the Common Tragedies blog . It goes a long way to explaining the rapid runup in oil prices over the last year: At the very least economic theory tells us that when both supply and demand are very inelastic that small changes in either can result in very, very large price changes.
Let's translate from econo-speak to regular people talk. "Elasticity of supply" means how easy it is for us to reduce consumption when the price goes up. Movie prices, for example, are highly elastic. If they double the price of a ticket, it's pretty easy for me to skip the midnight showing of Dark Knight. Gasoline, on the other hand, is harder to do without entirely. The price of gasoline has doubled in the last three years. I can cut down on my consumption by driving less, riding my bike to work, etc. But I still use a lot of gasoline. To use the economists' jargon, it's "inelastic". The supply side behaves the same way. If it's easy for the oil people to pump and refine more oil when the price rises, it's "elastic". If it's hard for them to make more, it's "inelastic," just as it was "inelastic" when it was hard for me to consume less. You can see what looks like evidence of that elasticity in the latest oil production data for New Mexico. Despite rapidly rising prices, it has not risen all that much, if at all, because it's hard and takes a while to sink new wells, to do the advanced production techniques required to bring up more oil, to reopen old plugged wells, etc. The collision between inelastic production and consumption, folks like Hall would argue, is the explanation for the high price runups we're seeing.
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More on the Bounds Water Law Decision |
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Monday, July 21, 2008, at 13:49:25 ... created Monday, 21 July 2008
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The aforementioned Michael Campana (who used to run UNM's Water Resources program) held forth last week with a thoughtful discussion of this month's state court ruling on domestic wells in New Mexico: There are roughly 130,000 of these wells in New Mexico. The state allows each well to pump about 3 acre-feet per year, or about 2,700 gpd (gallons per day), or about 2 gpm (gallons per minute). The exact amount pumped by each well is unknown, since the wells are unmetered and owners do not have to report pumpage. Some studies indicate that the average domestic well uses under 1 acre-foot per year, perhaps below 0.5. The USGS's Circular 1268 estimates 350 gpd, or about 0.4 acre-feet per year for a family of four.
Upshot: it's an unknown in the state's water budget. I remember having people in New Mexico tell me, with a straight face, that they were not part of the state's water problem because their well "only pumped a few gpm". Yeah, yours and 130,000 others! If I understand Michael's math, these domestic wells are using the equivalent of about an Albuquerque's worth of water. You're likely to hear a great deal more about this decision here and elsewhere.
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On Mayor Marty's Water Crusade |
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Monday, July 21, 2008, at 13:15:40 ... created Monday, 21 July 2008
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Western water guru Michael Campana on Martin Chavez's bottled water jihad: Normally, I wouldn't care much about what Mayor Marty does these days since I left the Duke City in 2006. But his sponsorship of the resolution reminded me of a time six or so years ago, when I was watching the Mayor hold forth on his show on the local access cable channel. He was at his desk, drinking bottled water. Since the show was a taped rerun, I couldn't call, but emailed him, mildly scolding him for setting a poor example by drinking bottled water when Albuquerque had such good tap water. To my surprise, he responded a few days later. After a few sentences of blather, he concluded: "For what it's worth, there was tap water in the bottle." Perhaps I was being unfair, or perhaps because I knew Mayor Marty, I did not believe him. But all is forgiven, Your Honor, for you have seen the light.
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State Seeks Comment on Quagga Plan |
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Monday, July 21, 2008, at 12:25:14 ... created Monday, 21 July 2008
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The New Mexico Department of Game and Fish is looking for comments on a plan to try to protect the state's waters from quagga mussels and other invasive species. Quaggas, a little mussel capable of causing big problems, has not been found in New Mexico yet, but most of the experts I talk to say it is just a matter of time. Shaun McKinnon over at the Arizona Republic recently quoted a study that put the economic damages from quaggas in the Great Lakes area at $200 million per year - a big incentive to try to keep them from spreading to New Mexico's waters.
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Why You're Not Paying Enough for Water |
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Friday, July 18, 2008, at 17:35:53 ... created Friday, 18 July 2008
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Mark Zetland explains why you're not paying enough for water.
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D'Agostino on the CMR Replacement |
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Friday, July 18, 2008, at 17:28:12 ... created Friday, 18 July 2008
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Tom D'Agostino, the NNSA's administration, raised the rhetorical heat yesterday during his testimony before a House subcommittee. The NNSA faces the prospect of having what it believes is one of its most important projects - a replacement for Los Alamos's aging CMR plutonium lab - zeroed out by the House. The project's critics say that, without a clear picture of the future size and role of the U.S. nuclear stockpile, the argument for building CMR, at a cost of perhaps $2 billion, is unclear. D'Agostino's sharply worded response yesterday: What will happen if we do not transform and just maintain the status quo? The short answer is we will reach the point where NNSA will be unable to maintain America’s nuclear deterrent. Every year the costs to maintain, operate, and secure our physical infrastructure continue to rise; yet our program to sustain our infrastructure to support a reduced stockpile is cut through the appropriations process. An independent group of scientists that advises the government, the JASONs, the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board, and the Defense Science Board, have all issued reports or findings over the past several years highlighting the need for NNSA infrastructure improvements and modernization.
(From written text of his testimony sent out today by NNSA.)
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More on Last Week's NM Water Ruling |
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Written by John Fleck
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last updated Friday, July 18, 2008, at 12:49:38 ... created Friday, 18 July 2008
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Joel Gay at the Independent has an excellent story on last week's court ruling on domestic water well drilling in New Mexico, with a helpful discussion on its effect on people who need well water for new homes: If the ruling is upheld, it could have a dramatic effect on rural home owners and builders. Unless they can prove their proposed well won't affect senior water rights holders, they might have to purchase water rights from another user. That's exactly what Albuquerque, Rio Rancho and other other cities in the Rio Grande valley must do now — at a cost of $15,000 or more per acre-foot. Home builders in urban areas don't need to worry about any of that. They simply hook up to the nearest water main. But rural homes generally need their own well, and for those homeowners the potential change in domestic well regulations could be costly in both time and money, Milarch told NMI, and has the potential to bring growth in rural areas to a standstill. Builder Bryan Hinkle said about half the 50 to 100 homes he builds every year in the Albuquerque area require individual wells. Buying water rights for those wells could present a cash-flow problem for the customer, he said, because they would need to buy the water rights before the county even allowed them to submit a construction plan. Between the water rights and other fees, Hinkel said, "You might have to put up $30,000 or $40,000 (before construction begins), and a lot of people can't put up that kind of money."
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