Air Force study predicts rapid drop in personnel, a spike, then leveling out.

Cannon Air Force Base is expected to drop from 4,467 active-duty military personnel, civilians and contractors to about 3,200 as its F-16s move elsewhere -- a process that has already begun and will last through March 2008, will increase sharply during a construction phase, then level out to about 5,680 base personnel by 2010, according to the newly released Air Force Draft Environmental Impact Statement reported in today's Clovis News Journal .

The Air Force's 16th Special Operations Wing is scheduled to take over the base in October, and when all is said and done -- by the years 2011 to 2014 -- there is expected to be an overall increase in Cannon's personnel, plus dependents, of about 17 percent, the News Journal reported.

Today's population of 8,904 active-duty personnel and their families should grow to around 10,784 by the year 2010 -- about the same as it was during Cannon's days of hosting the F-111 mission through 1994, according to the EIS.

Clovis Mayor David Lunsford told the News Journal that he expects the transition period between the F-16s departure and the arrival of the new Air Force special operations mission to be difficult, but said the area should be better off in the long run when things level out.

"I think it's very sustainable," Lunsford told the News Journal. "Whatever fluctuations that we go through will be very sustainable by the community in light of the fact we know the outcome of these transitions."

That includes a sudden influx of short-term population, impacting schools and housing needs, during the new construction phase, the News Journal reported.

The EIS was the subject of a separate story in today's News Journal, and you can see a copy of the draft EIS here (pdf).

Copies of the draft statement are currently available for review at the following libraries: New Mexico State Library in Santa Fe; Clovis-Carver Public Library in Clovis; Portales Public Library; Fort Sumner Public Library; and the Albert W. Thompson Memorial Library in Clayton, according to an Air Force news release . 

Public hearings on the draft statement will be held in Clovis on April 17, in Fort Sumner on April 18 and in Clayton April 19, the News Journal reported.

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