I've been doing a lot of work on energy lately, and I often ask people I'm interviewing some version of the following question:

"Given that both presidential candidates have endorsed a 'cap and trade' carbon regulation scheme, what effect would a price on carbon have on your industry?"

I've taken it as a given that we're going to see something come down the pike next year in terms of a carbon price because of climate change, but Daniel Hall points today to a number of political thinkers who are not so sure. Hall quotes a number of writers who suggest that development of a carbon trading scheme is too complicated, too prone to Washington gridlock, to happen next year.

Hall, though, argues otherwise:

These guys are overlooking one very big fact: the Supreme Court has already ordered the EPA to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. The current administration has chosen not to do so. I would not bet on the next administration making the same choice, at least certainly not an Obama administration.

The choice is not between cap-and-trade or nothing, or even between cap-and-trade and (new) piecemeal legislation from Congress. The choice is between comprehensive carbon pricing through a cap-and-trade program or a site-by-site regulatory permitting process for CO₂ emissions that operates under the current Clean Air Act.

I agree with Hall here. Industry people I talk to expect some sort of price on carbon and want to just find out a number so they can get on with their long-term planning.

What do you think? Do you expect Congress to enact some sort of cap-and-trade scheme or carbon tax next year? Will President McBama sign it?