It's hard to get excited about a winter climate forecast when the economy is tanking. But the main problem is a pesky normalcy out in the equatorial Pacific, the region that gives us El Niño or La Niña, and thus some semblance of guidance on whether odds favor a wetter or drier winter this year.

Unfortunately for weather junkies who like to stay on top of things, the better to shine at water cooler conversations, the latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is pretty much a tossup ("ENSO" is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation):

[B]ased on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, recent trends, and model forecasts, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into early 2009.

That is not to say that those of us who make our living trying to serve your water cooler conversation needs have nothing to say. In extremely hedged terms, the CPC is still forecasting odds favoring a drier late fall and early winter this year in New Mexico, with the driest areas over Southern Arizona - less so up here in central New Mexico. You can at least take that to the water cooler with you.