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Sunday, October 05, 2008

Voters Divided on Palin's Worth to GOP Ticket

By Colleen Heild
Copyright © 2008 Albuquerque Journal
Journal Staff Writer
          More New Mexico voters thought Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was an asset rather than a negative for the Republican presidential ticket, but the gap was narrow, a Journal Poll found last week.
        "People's opinions about whether she's a plus or a minus for the Republican presidential ticket pretty much are dependent upon one's party affiliation," said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc. of Albuquerque.
        The Journal survey was conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 2, concluding the night of the vice presidential debate between Palin and Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden on Thursday.
        Seventy-nine percent of the Republicans surveyed said she was a plus for the ticket, while only 24 percent of Democrats said they felt that way.
        Overall, 47 percent of all registered, likely voters surveyed — Democrats, Republicans and independents — said they viewed Palin as a plus for the GOP; 40 percent said she is a minus; and 13 percent were undecided, didn't know or wouldn't say.
        Only 13 percent of the Republicans surveyed viewed her as a minus for the GOP ticket, while 59 percent of Democrats said she was a negative for the GOP ticket. Among independents, 48 percent said she was a plus, while 41 percent viewed her as a minus; 12 percent were undecided.
        Sanderoff said just because voters viewed her as a plus for the Republican ticket doesn't necessarily mean they would vote for her and GOP presidential nominee John McCain. "We don't know how this would influence their vote," Sanderoff said.
        According to the poll, Palin tended to have a particular appeal among younger adults, males and Anglos.
        She was favored more heavily in rural New Mexico — particularly in oil and gas country — than in the Democratic stronghold region of north-central New Mexico.
        Palin's strongest showing was with voters who had some college or an associate's degree, while she was most unpopular with those who have graduate degrees or who had completed some graduate work.
        Men tended to say Palin was a plus for the GOP ticket more than women — 49 percent to 44 percent — but that isn't a statistically significant margin, Sanderoff said.
        Fifty-two percent of likely voters between 18-34 years old saw her as a plus, but that percentage tended to drop slightly among older age groups.
        Among Anglo voters, 53 percent saw her as a plus, compared with 33 percent of Hispanics.
        "Hispanics are more likely to say a minus, but remember that Hispanics are also much more likely to be registered Democrats," Sanderoff said.
        In eastern and northwestern New Mexico, about 70 percent surveyed said she was a plus for the Republican ticket. Those are places "that share her values," Sanderoff said. "She's clearly relating well to the rural conservative areas."
        In Albuquerque, voters were "somewhat equally divided."
        The Journal Poll is based on telephone interviews Sept. 29-Oct. 2 with 400 registered voters statewide, who said they are likely to vote Nov. 4. Survey results based on this scientific sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
        Post-debate polls around the country found voters thought Biden won the debate with Palin, but at least one — for CNN — also found voters found Palin the more likable of the two candidates.
        Sanderoff said Palin's debate performance probably wouldn't have affected her favorable ratings among New Mexico Republicans and Democrats, but could have led to higher plus numbers among independent voters.