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Tuesday, March 23, 2004
Bush, Kerry Even in N.M. Popularity
By David Miles
Copyright © 2004 Albuquerque Journal; Journal Capitol Bureau
SANTA FE— Neither President Bush nor Sen. John Kerry is leading the presidential popularity contest in New Mexico so far, a Journal poll found.
Forty-three percent of registered voters said they had a favorable impression of Bush, compared to 44 percent for Kerry.
New Mexico has been identified by both sides in the 2004 presidential contest as a battleground state. Democrat Al Gore carried the state over Bush four years ago by just 366 votes.
Now Bush and Kerry, the almost-certain Democratic nominee, appear to be heading into the long spring-to-fall campaign with a statistically equal start in New Mexico. However, voters were asked in the Journal poll whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate, not whom they expected to vote for.
More voters said they had an unfavorable impression of Bush than Kerry— 38 percent compared to 24 percent. But more voters were undecided about Kerry, who probably remains the lesser-known candidate.
The poll was conducted March 10-15.
Pollster Brian Sanderoff predicted the numbers will change now that the campaign is beginning. The unfavorable impression number for Kerry, in particular, could grow, he said.
"The Bush machine is just getting going," said Sanderoff, president of the Albuquerque firm Research and Polling Inc., which conducted the Journal poll.
Kerry led Bush in favorability among New Mexico Hispanic voters— 55 percent to 44 percent for Bush. But Bush had substantial and near equal support among both Hispanic and Anglo voters, 44 percent and 43 percent respectively.
"That should be great news for the president," Sanderoff said.
Bush had exceptionally strong favorability ratings among Republicans— 84 percent— while Kerry's backing among Democrats was 61 percent.
Both drew only 22 percent favorable ratings from members of the opposite party. Kerry got the "favorable impression" rating from 37 percent of the independent voters polled, compared to 29 percent for Bush.
There was no discernible difference on the gender score between the two candidates: They got near equal favorable ratings from men and women.
Favorable ratings also were evenly divided in the Albuquerque metropolitan area, encompassing roughly a third of New Mexico's voters, where 44 percent of respondents said they had a favorable impression of Kerry and 41 percent said they favorably viewed Bush.
Bush was better liked than Kerry in the eastern and northwestern parts of the state, where 61 percent and 56 percent of respondents said they had a favorable impression of the president.
Kerry was most liked in north-central New Mexico, where 70 percent of respondents said they had a favorable impression of him.
Religion was a strong predictor of each candidate's favorable ratings in New Mexico.
Seventy-four percent of Baptists and 61 percent of other Protestants viewed Bush in a favorable light.
Sixty-four percent of respondents listing "other" as their religious preference and 54 percent of Catholics said they had a favorable impression of Kerry.
Sanderoff said many Catholics are Democrats, while Baptists and some other Protestants tend to be more conservative.
The Journal poll is based on random telephone interviews with 330 registered voters statewide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Coming Wednesday: New Mexicans polled on Gov. Bill Richardson.