In a state where the two major political parties once claimed nearly all the registered electorate, independent voters are finally having their day.
Once the core of the political system throughout New Mexico, parties are increasingly taking a back seat to the will of candidates fueled by their own values and charisma, not their party’s identity.
And despite ardent bases of voters still aligned with the Democratic and Republican parties, the growing numbers of independent voters are becoming a force behind how individual campaigns strategize for victory.
Political scientists and observers cite partisan bickering, cultural changes and money, among other reasons, for the rise of independent voters and decline of major political party dominance.
Nearly one in five registered voters in New Mexico now does not belong to one of the two major political parties.
The portion of people who decline to state a political party affiliation on voter registration forms — a rough proxy for registering as an independent in New Mexico — has doubled to about 185,000 people in the last 13 years, or to about 16 percent of the total , according to January 2011 statistics provided by the Secretary of State’s Office. That number grows to 19 percent when third party registrations are included.
Democrats have felt the sting the worst. In 1982, they boasted 63 percent of the state’s registered voters. They have steadily declined to 49 percent as of January, but still remain the most populous of the political parties.
Republicans have managed to keep a roughly similar market share, retaining about one-third, of the state’s registered voters for 30 years.
“The national trend for a long time now has been an overall increase of independents and weakened identifiers with the main two political parties,” said Christine Sierra, political science professor at the University of New Mexico. “People don’t feel strongly connected and identify with a party.”
Closed primaries
While already making up 16 percent of the registered voters, many believe that even more people would classify themselves as independents with changes to New Mexico election laws.
The closed primary system in the state — meaning only voters registered as members of the major parties can participate in primary elections — discourages voters from not picking a party, particularly in areas of New Mexico heavily populated by Republicans or Democrats.
Lonna Atkeson, a political science professor and the director of the Center for the Study of Voting, Elections and Democracy at UNM, said that she, for example, identifies as an independent but feels she would have little influence in elections in Santa Fe without participating in a Democratic primary.
“If I didn’t register as a partisan, then I really wouldn’t have a choice,” she said.
Benson Hendrix, a 38-year-old Albuquerque resident who declined to state a party when registering to vote and considers himself an independent, said his values are spread across both major parties and he doesn’t feel comfortable fitting into either one.
“I find that there is too much dogmatic pressure from either side of the political spectrum,” Hendrix said. “I have views that span both sides of the line, and I just felt that’s more representative of who I am.”
In a research survey Atkeson did with voters in the 2008 presidential race — a contest where voter turnout is generally higher — about 18 percent of the people surveyed identified themselves as independents. Her data did not include whether independents consistently favored one party or another.
However, her data showed that about 53 percent of Democrats and about 18 percent of Republicans identified themselves as moderates.
Moderates can effectively become independents in some elections, Sierra said, such as when some Democrats crossed over to vote for Gov. Susana Martinez in the 2010 gubernatorial election.
Youth is also a factor in the growth of independent ranks. State voter file figures show that young people between 18 and 30 are more than twice as likely, at about 25 percent, to decline to state a party when registering than people older than 60, among whom the figure is about 10 percent or lower, according to October 2008 numbers.
Independents share other characteristics, as well.
“Independents tend to sway with the political winds, that’s why they are independents,” said Research and Polling President Brian Sanderoff. “They tend to be more sensitive to partisan bickering. They tend to be more pragmatic.”
Party lines
Political scientists and party insiders blame a number of factors for the decline of party influence, but none more than partisanship that has been increasing since the 1980s.
Edward Lujan, former Republican Party of New Mexico chairman and brother to 20-year former Rep. Manuel Lujan Jr., R-N.M., said both political parties have shifted away from an inclusive, problem-solving approach.
“The parties were for the people, they just articulated their philosophies and their philosophies weren’t necessarily one-sided,” Lujan said. “Today, in both parties, the philosophies are pretty one-sided.”
Atkeson said the primary election system has been a large culprit in the partisan shift. Candidates often run further to the right or left, depending on their party, in a primary and shift back toward the center in the general election. The primary message from campaigns, meant to incite the candidates’ more principled base, alienates moderates, she said.
“As the parties became more ideological over the past 30 years, I think a lot of people have been turned off by that ideological message,” she said.
Hendrix said he often sees a candidate get elected in a primary contest that is farther away from the center than he is comfortable with.
“About seven times out of 10, I do not see the candidate I would go wholeheartedly after,” he said.
Other factors are also working against parties, resulting in a loss of loyalty among once fervent followers.
Sanderoff said parties have lost steam as political patronage jobs have decreased over the years, Social Security gave people a more reliable retirement system and candidates started taking over the campaign process.
Sierra said “candidate-centered elections” have become the norm, with parties taking a back seat to candidates who raise more money and do more to direct the platform.
“Parties are still very much important to mobilize grass-roots campaigns and election workers, but much turns on the specifics of individual candidates and their campaigns,” Sierra said. “We know that, at least at election time, the most influential factors and who wins are about the candidate.”
More recently, parties have been hampered by new contribution laws that restrict the amount of money that can be donated to a candidate or party. This has shifted more money to third-party expenditure groups that can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money on elections.
In politics, less money means less influence.
“The institutions are still there, but they don’t have the resources to do anything,” Lujan said.
Atkeson said a cultural shift is also at work, in which many of the party loyalists forged from the New Deal coalition have begun to disappear. Those people’s children, and grandchildren, don’t feel the same connection to their party as did their grandparents, who lived in or near the time of the Great Depression.
Matt Ross, communications director of the Democratic Party of New Mexico, said that no matter the reasons, the reality is that New Mexico won’t be headed back to the days when one political party ruled.
“I don’t think you’re ever going to see something like the situation in the 1980s ever again,” Ross said.
New strategies
The political parties cite various strategies to sway independent voters onto their side in the coming 2012 election, but they agree that a “big tent” philosophy is needed. State GOP Executive Director Bryan Watkins said Republicans need to better articulate that their platform doesn’t require agreement on every single issue. He said independents need to know that the party values them, even if they agree with only 75 percent of the platform.
“I think the misconception on both sides is that you’re either with us or against us,” Watkins said, later adding: “I think it has shaped our message to be a much more inclusive party.”
Ross said it is important for Democrats to present themselves as the party that “welcomes debate” and tolerates dissension among its members. Many elections in the state will hinge on independents feeling they can belong, he said.
“It’s critical,” Ross said. “In every election, these votes are on the table for either side to win.”
Sanderoff said the most effective way to gain independent, and moderate, votes, is to preach bipartisanship.
“The average voter,” he said, “just wants them to work together and get things done,” Sanderoff said.
Hendrix has noticed the appeals in general election cycles for his vote. He said that, especially in a swing region like Albuquerque, it’s nice to know that he doesn’t have to pick a side and can still sway an election.
“I know my vote counts,” he said.
— This article appeared on page A1 of the Albuquerque Journal
Reprint story -- Email the reporter at solson@abqjournal.com.
