Rain: Nice, but not enough

I awoke this morning to the sound of rain pit-a-patting on the roof as a band of rain swept over the Albuquerque metro area at dawn. When I went out to the rain gauge at 7 a.m., I found 0.02 inch- enough to contribute to the cozy of a black Friday morning spent indoors not buying stuff, but not by any stretch a drought-ender.

Some spots around the state did better as the storm moved up from Mexico across the bootheel and up the continental divide. Reports from south and west of a quarter of an inch (more or less) were common, according to the National Weather Service. But given current drought conditions, with 63 percent of the state in “extreme” drought or worse, it’ll take a lot more than that to pull us out.

How much?

The National Climatic Data Center has a set of maps, updated monthly, that tries to answer that question, and for us the answer is grim. Between now and the end of February, we’d need at least double the normal amount of rain and snow to dig us out of the hole we’re in now:

And what are the odds of that happening? Less than one in 20.

A big thanks to Corey Peiper of the National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office, and Kerry Jones with the Weather Service here in Albuquerque, for help with the maps.