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Five days out from our first mass ascension and it’s still not clear what the weather will be like Saturday morning. This much we know for sure, according to Kerry Jones at the National Weather Service’s Albuquerque office – there is a cold front likely to be bearing down from the east at some point Saturday, but when it arrives remains unclear.
The cold front is likely to bring with it our famous “gap winds” – air pushing in from the east that slips through Tijeras Canyon, bringing windy weather to the south side of Albuquerque. The timing of the front’s arrival remains unclear, Jones said during a briefing this afternoon (Mon. 10/1/12). One of the forecast models has it arriving by sunrise – in other words, by launch time. Another model, which seems more likely, has it arriving later.
Regardless, Jones showed a map during today’s briefing that does a nice job of explaining the implications of gap winds for Fiesta. The fact that they’re blowing hard from the east through Tijeras Canyon does not mean they’ll be blowing hard from the east up by the Fiesta field. To the contrary, the most likely scenario during a gap wind event is that the winds can’t top the Sandias. Instead, the winds at the north end of Albuquerque loop around the mountains to the north. Here’s the map:
Gap winds and the Balloon Fiesta, courtesy National Weather Service
-- Email the reporter at jfleck@abqjournal.com. Call the reporter at 505-823-3916
