February New Mexico runoff forecast: very little water

As New Mexico enters its third consecutive year of drought, water managers and users are paying unusually close attention to the forecasts. Usually this early in the water season, they caution patience, an “anything can still happen” mentality. But in conversations I had today after the NRCS February forecast came out, the mood ranged from grim to grimmer. I’ll have more in tomorrow’s newspaper. Here’s a quick rundown of numbers.

These numbers are the median forecast, based on a) current snowpack, and b) a presumption of average precipitation from now through spring. This means we could see higher flows if it suddenly gets wet, and lower if it stays on our current drier-than-normal trajectory. The seasonal forecast says odds favor the dry side of that option. The numbers are in percentage of the 1981-2012 mean:

• Rio Grande at Otowi: 53 percent
• Rio Grande at San Marcial (the head of Elephant Butte): 39 percent
• Pecos at Santa Rosa: 36 percent
• Animas River at Durango (OK, technically not NM, but we claim them): 70 percent
• Gila River at Gila: 46 percent