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Dry Rio Grande river bed (Pat Vasquez-Cunningham/Journal)
If there is good news in the March New Mexico river runoff forecast, it is that things haven’t gotten any worse.
Preliminary numbers sent around to water managers today by the forecasters at the Natural Resources Conservation Service are pretty much a wash, with a slight decrease in runoff from the Rio Grande headwaters in Colorado, offset by an slight increase in runoff expected from the Sangre de Cristos in New Mexico, according to forecaster Angus Goodbody.
The bottom line:
- Rio Grande at Otowi: 55 percent of the long term average
- Rio Grande at San Acacia (essentially inflow into Elephant Butte reservoir): 39 percent
- Pecos River into Santa Rosa: 36 percent
- El Vado Reservoir (0n the Chama): 55 percent
These are midpoint forecasts, meaning there is a 50 percent chance of being above that number and a 50 percent chance of being below, depending on whether it’s wet or dry from here on out. The long lead forecasters say the odds favor dry for the coming months, and water managers I talk to are planning based on an expectation that the actual runoff is more likely than not to be on the low side of the forecast.
-- Email the reporter at jfleck@abqjournal.com. Call the reporter at 505-823-3916
