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My colleague Bruce Daniels had some fun last week with the fact that a 1950 Roswell UFO memo is the most read item in the FBI’s web collection. But what is the memo actually telling us? Spencer Ackerman at Wired’s Danger Room has an interesting take:
Until intelligence gets to the heart of the matter the reports describe, they’re closer to rumors than facts. Clarifying that distinction is why, as a post-Iraq reform, consensus intelligence products now explicitly state the confidence levels analysts have about component information, as well as any dissents that analysts or their agencies issue.
Go on believing in UFOs if that’s your thing. You have just as much reason to do so after reading Hottel’s memo, since it doesn’t refute the existence of the downed saucers. Just remember that intelligence reports that seem like smoking guns are usually more smoke than gun.
The full post is worth a read.
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