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Thursday, November 04, 2010
Martinez Protected Base, Attracted Dems
Copyright © 2010 Albuquerque Journal
By 2010 Sean Olson
Albuquerque Journal
Journal Staff Writer
Gov.-elect Susana Martinez sealed her victory Tuesday with overwhelming support in conservative counties, crossover votes in traditionally Democratic counties and a strong performance in the Albuquerque area.
Unofficial election results showed the Las Cruces Republican won by about 40,000 votes over Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish — a 54 percent to 46 percent advantage.
"So Denish really did get thumped," University of New Mexico political science professor Christine Sierra said. "It certainly appears that (Martinez's support) was very widespread and diverse."
Martinez performed well in three key areas to ensure her victory, political analyst Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling Inc., said Wednesday.
Sanderoff cited:
• Martinez took Bernalillo County, which has one-third of the state's voters.
"For Diane Denish to have any chance of winning, she had to win Albuquerque, and she lost by 5,000 votes," Sanderoff said.
Bernalillo County has leaned Democrat in recent years, he said. Between that and the number of votes it represents in the state, the county was an important battleground for both campaigns.
• Although Denish is a Hobbs native, Martinez didn't yield any ground in typically conservative counties, especially in eastern New Mexico, winning by large margins.
Counties like Lea and San Juan, which Martinez won by about 6,000 and 14,000 votes, respectively, bolstered Martinez's votes and made Democratic counties even more of a necessity for Denish, Sanderoff said.
• Democratic voters, even in party strongholds, were willing to cross over and vote for Martinez.
Sanderoff said Martinez picked up greater shares of votes than usual for Republicans in north-central counties, including Rio Arriba and Mora, which have strong Democratic voting histories.
"Sure, Diane Denish won those counties, but she didn't win by the same margin a typically strong Democrat would have," Sanderoff said.
Denish won Rio Arriba county by a little more than 2,000 votes, Mora county by about 1,200 votes and Santa Fe County by about 18,000 votes. But Martinez received about 41 percent of the vote in Rio Arriba County, 46 percent in Mora County and 33 percent in Santa Fe County.
Meanwhile, Martinez received 71 percent of the vote in Chaves County, 74 percent in Lea County and 69 percent in San Juan County.
Sierra said Hispanics were an important part of Martinez's electorate, considering that Hispanics are more likely to vote for Democrats in New Mexico.
Martinez ran on a ticket with lieutenant governor nominee John Sanchez of Albuquerque. Denish's running mate, also a Hispanic, was Albuquerque lawyer Brian Colón.
Latino Decisions, a research group that tracked the Hispanic vote in at least eight states, reported that 38 percent of Hispanics in New Mexico voted for Martinez.
Sierra said that a Republican picking up nearly 40 percent of the Hispanic vote is "significant."
Sanderoff said Martinez was more appealing to Hispanic voters than other Republicans running in the state have been.
"I think she was seen as a likable candidate who many of the people in northern New Mexico could relate to," Sanderoff said.
Sierra said Martinez can be credited for picking up support from all kinds of voters in multi-cultural New Mexico.
Part of that was due to a voter rejection of sitting Gov. Bill Richardson, who voters associated with Denish, and part was because of effective campaigning, Sierra said.
"I think Martinez's campaign was run better, more effectively," she said. "She just had a clear and persuasive message throughout the campaign."
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