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Saturday, April 10, 2010
GOP Has Sights Set on Legislature
By Barry Massey
Associated Press
SANTA FE — Democrats have maintained a majority in the state House of Representatives for nearly 60 years, but Republicans hope to chip away at that this year.
Democratic incumbents face GOP candidates in 25 legislative races — the most Republican challengers in a decade.
"What we're doing is looking at how many seats have been targeted in the past and realizing that we need to start fielding more candidates and winning where we can," said state GOP spokeswoman Janel Causey.
The elections are critical because the Legislature will redraw boundaries of House and Senate districts next year using population data from the 2010 census. The new districts — and whether they favor candidates from one party — will influence elections and legislative actions for the next decade.
Democrats hold a 45-25 advantage in the House. Senators aren't up for re-election until 2012.
To seize control of the House, Republicans need to avoid losing any seats while taking 11 currently held by Democrats — a huge task if past elections are any indication.
The largest recent GOP gain came in 1994, when it picked up seven House seats. That same year, Republican Gary Johnson defeated Democratic incumbent Gov. Bruce King. The GOP padded its numbers in the next two elections — 30 House Republicans were seated when the 1999 Legislature convened.
The GOP last enjoyed a House majority after netting 19 seats in 1952, when World War II hero Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, won the presidency. Democrats regained control of the New Mexico House in the next election.
Democrats remain confident they'll keep a House majority.
"It would be ludicrous for us if we didn't spend a lot of time and energy defending our 20-seat majority we have in the House," Democratic Party Executive Director Scott Forrester said.
Typically, incumbents have a significant advantage in fundraising and name identification, but they could face a political headwind this year.
Lawmakers, particularly Democrats, have cast potentially unpopular budget-balancing votes to raise taxes and cut spending on schools and other governmental programs. During a special session that ended in March, the Legislature approved the largest tax increase package in more than two decades. Only one House Republican voted for the main tax increase measure. Six Democrats opposed it.
"All our incumbents are going to work their butts off. They are aware it's a difficult environment," Forrester said.
Three of the GOP-targeted races will be among the most competitive — Albuquerque-area seats in which Democrats defeated Republican incumbents in 2008.
More than half of the targeted Democratic incumbents are in districts with strongly Democratic voting patterns. But longtime New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff likens campaigns to the lottery, particularly for long-shot candidates.
"You can't win, unless you play," Sanderoff said.
Democrats have fielded challengers against eight GOP House members, although most of those are in solidly GOP districts.
Twenty-eight legislators — 15 Democrats and 13 Republicans — are running unopposed unless a minor party candidate challenges them. That's fewer unopposed races than in 2008.
Six House members, including Speaker Ben Lujan, a Santa Fe Democrat, have only primary election opponents. Three incumbents didn't seek re-election.
Copyright ©2010 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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