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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Poll: Older Hispanics Favor Obama

By Jeff Jones
Journal Staff Writer
       Barack Obama has broad support among older Hispanic voters in New Mexico, according to a Journal Poll — results that appear to contradict recent racially charged comments from two in-state political figures.
    The Journal last week reported on the Democratic presidential candidate's overall 5-point advantage over Republican John McCain in this state, as well as Obama's overall level of support among Hispanic voters. Sixty-two percent of Hispanics among all age groups backed Obama, compared with 17 percent for McCain.
    Obama's support among young voters has long been one of the strengths of his campaign. But a more-detailed breakdown of the Journal's survey, conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 2, found that his support among Hispanics was strongest among those ages 50 and older. Seventy percent of those older New Mexico Hispanic voters said they backed Obama, while 12 percent favored McCain and 18 percent were undecided. The advantage for Obama was even larger among Hispanics ages 65 and older.
    Among Hispanics ages 18-34, 68 percent backed Obama and 24 percent favored McCain.
    "A lot of seniors are part of the New Deal generation. They're concerned about social services, and Social Security, and Medicare, and Medicaid. And those are more bread-and-butter Democratic issues," said Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc. in Albuquerque.
    Then-Bernalillo County Republican Party Chairman Fernando C de Baca, 70, set off a local political fury late last month when he was quoted by the BBC as saying that "Hispanics consider themselves above blacks" and that Hispanics of his generation feel they were left "sucking air" during the civil-rights movement while blacks took "full advantage" of government benefits and programs.
    And this summer, Democratic state Sen. Mary Jane Garcia of Doña Ana told a Denver newspaper, "I don't know one single Hispanic over 50 who will cast a vote for Obama. There have always been conflicts between blacks and browns."
    C de Baca, who has maintained that some of his comments were taken out of context, discussed Sanderoff's polling numbers concerning Hispanic seniors in recent Journal interviews.
    "I certainly hope that his data, the results of his poll, are in fact true. This would represent a reversal of a lot of feelings that have occurred in the past," said C de Baca, who resigned as the GOP county chairman during the outcry over his earlier comments. "That would indicate to me a lot of the prejudices of past generations are finally ebbing away."
    C de Baca said he's spoken with many older Hispanic voters in Albuquerque's South Valley who believe the economy is the No. 1 issue in the race — and are backing Obama for that reason.
    For them, "race isn't an issue," C de Baca said.
    Garcia, who also maintains that her earlier comments were taken out of context, said in a separate Journal interview that the new poll concerning older Hispanics "surprises me in a very wonderful way."
    Sanderoff said one possible bright spot for McCain in the polling data is that 20 percent of Hispanic Democrats in New Mexico remain undecided in the presidential contest. "We'll have to wait and see if they come home to their party," he said.
    The margin of error in the overall Journal Poll of 659 likely voters was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The overall margin of error of the data focusing on the 191 Hispanic voters in that survey was plus or minus 7 percentage points.