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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Cold and Stormy Weather on Way
By John Fleck
Journal Staff Writer
Wintry weather is headed New Mexico's way this week, as forecasters say El Niño's wet weather pattern could be ramping up.
The storm is expected to arrive in Arizona today, reaching western New Mexico as well, with a chance of showers in the Albuquerque metro area by this evening and continuing through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.
In Albuquerque, the precipitation could come in the form of snow showers by Wednesday night. Heavy snow is possible in the state's northern mountains, according to the weather service.
In general, precipitation will not be as widespread or as heavy as last week's storm, but it is likely to be colder, with overnight low temperatures that are "probably the coldest of the season" so far, said Dan Porter, a forecaster at the weather service's Albuquerque office.
The highs in Albuquerque are expected to be in the low 50s on Wednesday.
Porter's office issued freeze warnings for this morning in Albuquerque, Santa Fe, the lower Rio Grande Valley and parts of east-central New Mexico. The average date for the first freeze in Albuquerque is Oct. 31.
The storm is expected to move out in time for Halloween, and Saturday is expected to be sunny, with temperatures nearing 60.
The storm will be the fourth to bring precipitation to Albuquerque since the first of September, in a pattern that is consistent with the El Niño currently growing in the Pacific, said Ed Polasko, a water supply specialist at the weather service.
El Niño happens when the Pacific warms up along the equator. The unusually warm water increases moisture in the air that feeds storms headed toward North America. It also acts as a rudder, steering the jet stream, the river of high-altitude air that brings storms across the North American continent.
El Niño began developing in the summer but then stalled, according to Erik Pytlak, with the weather service's Tucson office.
In an online briefing Monday for regional government officials and the news media, Pytlak said the stall appears to be ending, with signs that El Niño is now strengthening.
The latest forecasts call for odds of wetter-than-average weather in central and southern New Mexico as a result. The effect in the northern mountains, where winter snowpack provides next year's water supply, is less clear, according to Gregg Garfin, a University of Arizona climate scientist. The farther north you go, the less impact El Niño has, Garfin said during Monday's briefing.
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