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Sunday, October 31, 2004

Journal Poll: Bush Holds Slight Edge in N.M.

By Andy Lenderman
Copyright © 2004 Albuquerque Journal; Journal Politics Writer
    President Bush is slightly ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry in New Mexico— 47 to 44 percent— as the presidential campaign rolls into its final weekend, a Journal poll found.
    But the race is so close it likely will be decided by voter turnout on Tuesday, said Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff.
    "It's a close race and Bush has an ever-so-slight lead. We're looking at a 3-point lead with a 3-point margin of error. And what it's really going to come down to is which campaign does a better job of getting its supporters to the polls," Sanderoff said.
    Seven percent of voters were undecided in the poll, which has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Michael Badnarik each had 1 percent support.
    Kerry led 58 to 29 percent in the Democratic strongholds of north-central New Mexico. Bush led Kerry 68 to 25 percent on the state's conservative eastern side.
    Bush's numbers have improved in the Albuquerque metro area since the last Journal poll in early October.
    "Albuquerque is close. It's nearly a tie," Sanderoff said.
    Bush "has picked up a little among Democrats, and solidified his support among conservatives, such as east siders, and has also made some inroads in Albuquerque," Sanderoff said.
    Kerry's lead was even wider in north-central New Mexico in an Oct. 1-4 Journal poll.
    "The conservative areas like the east side continue to solidify behind the president, whereas the Democratic stronghold of north-central New Mexico has not further solidified behind Kerry," Sanderoff said.