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Thursday, October 02, 2008
Doña Ana South Valley Could Swing State for Obama
By José Z. Garcia
NMSU Government Professor
Barack Obama went to Española last month hoping to energize Hispanic voters there. A few numbers will make clear why.
Rio Arriba County, where Española is located, had an estimated population of 40,949 in 2006, out of which about 29,565 (72.8 percent) were Hispanic. In 2004 Kerry's margin of victory in Rio Arriba was 69 percent, 4,604 votes out of a total of 14,902 votes cast between Bush-Kerry.
In a tight race for New Mexico, and it looks that way now, that margin of victory in a relatively small county could come in handy for Obama. So the visit makes sense. But let us compare those numbers with Doña Ana County.
The population here is just about 200,000, up from a U.S. Census Bureau estimate of 193,888 in 2006. About 65 percent are Hispanic, totaling about 130,000. Voter registration in Doña Ana County on Sept. 18 was 105,560, 11 percent higher than in 2004, when it was 94,345. And there are still three weeks of registration left to go.
Assuming the same countywide turnout as in 2004 (67.6 percent), and not counting the 3,000 or 4,000 that may still come in, this should produce 71,358 votes. Assuming a small vote for Nader, Barr, and others (let's guess 4 percent) this would mean McCain and Obama would split about 68,503 votes between them.
Heavily Democratic, Doña Ana County will almost certainly vote for Obama. But the margin of that victory is in balance and could make the difference between winning and losing the state and its five electoral votes.
Kerry won Doña Ana County in 2004 with 51.8 percent of the vote, producing a margin of 2,214 votes, not very impressive by Rio Arriba's standards, which may be one reason why Obama has yet to make a public appearance here. But Kerry never really caught on here.
That same year, in a low profile district judge race, Douglas Driggers beat his Republican opponent by 8,549 votes in a race that produced only 2,000 fewer votes than the presidential race. In a Court of Appeals race, the Democrat won by a margin of 10,998 votes.
The good news for Obama in these numbers is the high swing potential. If Obama carries Doña Ana County again by 51.8 percent he will beat McCain by about 2,467 votes. But if he carries by 57 percent (still below the 57.2 percent and 57.6 percent each winning candidate got in the judges races cited above) he will beat McCain by 9,591 votes. Much better. And if he wins by 62 percent he will beat McCain by a whopping 16,441 votes. Kerry lost the whole state by less than 6,000 votes.
Is it worth it for Obama to explore the waters in Doña Ana County? I think so.
Now let us consider the South Valley of Doña Ana County. The South Valley is 84 percent Hispanic. As of Aug. 20 it had 22,407 registered voters, which is 22 percent of the county total. In 2004 the South Valley gave Kerry a winning margin of 58.4 percent, and a cushion of 2,586 votes — a higher cushion than the county as a whole delivered to Kerry.
But even with these nice margins, South Valley performance for Kerry was mediocre in comparison with the norm. That same year the Democratic candidate for Court of Appeals, in a lower profile race, received 68.3 percent of the vote and a cushion of 4,101. The South Valley turnout in 2004 was only 58.8 percent, compared to a county-wide turnout of 67.6 percent.
And Gov. Bill Richardson carried the South Valley in 2006 by a margin of 81 percent, largely because he campaigned seriously there both in 2001 and 2006, addressing their specific needs. So the South Valley also has swing potential.
If Obama carries the area by a margin of 52 and a turnout of 59 percent he will come out of the South Valley with just upwards of 500 votes. But if he beats McCain by 70-30 with a turnout of 65 percent he will get about 10,195 votes, McCain only 4,369, a margin of 5,826, almost the margin of victory for George Bush in 2004.
The South Valley is a fascinating place. El Paso is spilling into New Mexico as it struggles to cope with a $4 billion expansion of Ft. Bliss. The largest maquila plant in Mexico is being built on the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexican border at the Santa Teresa crossing, promising to spill growth onto the U.S. side as well. Several communities in the valley are among the poorest in the state, but other communities are firmly in the middle class, and upper class residents with horses and vineyards mingle in as well.
In spite of its overall poverty, the South Valley is well organized politically, often votes in a bloc, and has a mind of its own. It gave Richardson 81 percent of the vote in 2006 and then turned around and organized effectively against the governor the very next year when he tried to get them to increase their taxes for the spaceport project.
After several rounds of canvassing in the South Valley, it appears to me to be less than fully enthusiastic about the presidential campaign, but ripe for a shot in the arm.
Sound to you like the kind of place Barack might just wanna visit this campaign season?
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