ABQJOURNAL OPINION/GUEST_COLUMNS: Mideast Hopes Lie in Youth

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Mideast Hopes Lie in Youth

By Emile Nakhleh
Former Director, CIA Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program
          The revolutionary fervor spreading across the Arab world and the continued violence that autocratic regimes in Libya, Yemen, Syria and elsewhere are committing against their defenseless peoples are creating new challenges for the United States.
        The fall of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and the expected crumbling of the dictatorial regimes in Libya and Yemen are putting added pressure on regimes in Syria, Bahrain and Jordan. These developments are also exacerbating Washington's efforts to chart a new course in the region — morally, politically and strategically.
        We are witnessing the birth of a new Middle East, the likes of which we have not seen since World War I. A new generation — youthful, sophisticated, legitimate and nonideological — is asserting that Arab authoritarianism is no longer acceptable. Arab peoples seem to have lost their sense of fear and, despite the odds, are facing down the regime security apparatus.
        Popular protests are neither anti-American nor driven by Islamic radicalism or al-Qaida. They seek dignity, justice, respect and the opportunity to live as free citizens.
        Members of this generation entertain similar aspirations of their counterparts in Western societies — freedom to pursue their hopes, a decent job and the ability to live as human beings with dignity and hope.
        Whether the United States can influence outcomes, or indeed articulate the desired outcomes, remains an open question. Our evolving military and political response to events in Libya, Bahrain and Yemen illustrates the present challenge.
        To many in the region, American policy seems to be moving in multiple directions. We let Ben Ali and Mubarak go; we are using force against Gadhafi; we are endorsing dialogue in Bahrain; we are unsure about Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen; and we are critical of regime brutality in Syria. Furthermore, we've been somewhat silent on Jordan and Morocco, two friendly monarchies.
        As more autocrats fall, emerging regional players expect the U.S. to wean itself off working with dictators (autocracy addiction) no matter how pliant and learn to work with freely elected governments no matter how messy. It's time Washington exorcises itself of the autocracy addition that has bedeviled our relations with the peoples of the region for decades.
        The key challenge for us is how to balance our support for the youthful generation demanding genuine reform with our continued need to engage autocratic regimes for national security reasons. The narrative of force and obedience, which autocrats employed to stay in power, has run its course.
        The good news for Washington is that al-Qaida and other radical groups are not driving the youthful protest movement and that emerging opposition leaders are not interested in stoking or starting new wars in the region. They also would welcome American personnel, science, technology and entrepreneurial know-how.
        The emerging Obama doctrine says simply that U.S. support of regimes is contingent on those regimes' popular legitimacy. Once regimes lose the support of their people, they cannot continue to expect American backing. On the other hand, Washington is not in a position to decide which regimes are too big to fail or are too important to back.
        The millions of Arab youths who went into the street to protest their regimes' brutality and repression did so on their own without any support from the outside world. The U.S. and other Western nations had to play catch-up.
        The democratic fervor promises to become a permanent feature of Arab politics. Turbulence and instability will be evident in the near term, especially as security services are forced to loosen their grip on the population and as new political parties emerge. Radical groups in some countries — for example, AQAP in Yemen — would try to take advantage of post-regime instability, but will not succeed due to the nonideological nature of the anti-regime movement. Arab society will experience varied degrees of pain and uncertainty before a new order takes root. What is certain is that Arab populations have lost their sense of fear and are willing to face down forces of injustice no matter how brutal.
        For the first time in decades, the Arab grass-roots movement is not against foreign parties (America, colonialism, Israel, Zionism, etc.) but for something — reform, dignity and freedom.
        Arab youths have welcomed Western military action against the Gadhafi regime in order to protect civilians and safeguard the revolution. They oppose Saudi military intervention in Bahrain, on the other hand, because they view it as promoting sectarianism and anti-Shia hatred.
        Post-autocracy turbulence would create potential risks for the United States, including from terrorist franchise groups, sectarianism, regime anger, a resurgent Iran and rising anti-Americanism among the old guard. In the long run, however, democratic tendencies would take root and Arab society would join the global community in peace, pragmatism and creativity.
        Members of the rising generation — entrepreneurs, social media nerds and innovators — know that if they want to dream and create, they will have to connect with their counterparts in the U.S. American interests will be better served if Washington decides to stand on the right side of history driven by a youthful generation of tomorrow, not sick old autocrats who understand only the language of force and obedience.
        Emile Nakhleh is the author of "A Necessary Engagement: Reinventing America's Relations with the Muslim World." He now lives in Albuquerque.

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