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Friday, November 20, 2009
Report: No New Nukes Needed
By John Fleck
Journal Staff Writer
The nuclear weapons lab and factory teams maintaining U.S. warheads have done such a good job that there is no need to design replacements, a key government advisory panel has concluded.
“Lifetimes of today's nuclear warheads could be extended for decades, with no anticipated loss in confidence,” the panel of top military technology advisers said in the report made public Thursday.
But the report warns that a loss of expertise in the weapons community threatens the program's long-term success.
Findings of the study, done by the secretive JASON advisory group at the request of Congress, undercut arguments by some in the weapons community that a new generation of warheads would be easier to maintain in the long run.
In a September speech, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, talking about the future of the U.S. nuclear stockpile, said “in one or two cases probably new designs that will be safer and more reliable” will be needed. That fueled speculation the Obama administration might be considering resurrecting work on the Reliable Replacement Warhead, a project previously killed by Congress.
The new study should end such talk, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association.
“The headline should be 'Case closed,' ” Kimball said in a telephone interview.
Since the end of the Cold War in the 1990s, the United States has not designed or built new nuclear warheads. Instead, maintenance and upgrades have been done through “life-extension programs,” during which aging components are replaced.
The House Armed Services Committee asked for the study by JASON, a panel of scientific experts who gather each summer to advise the U.S. government. The group is believed to have been named after Jason, the leader of the argonauts in Greek mythology.
The JASON study found the life-extension process is working well, eliminating the need for the design and manufacture of new warheads. “This finding is a direct consequence of the excellent work of the people in the U.S. nuclear weapons complex,” the study's authors wrote.
The National Nuclear Security Administration, the federal agency responsible for the warheads, issued a statement endorsing the study's findings, calling them “well-aligned with NNSA's long-term stockpile management strategy.”
The JASON report cautions there is a risk to the program in the long term in that the unique set of technical skills and people needed to maintain the weapons is eroding.
“This expertise is threatened,” the report concludes, “by lack of program stability, perceived lack of mission importance, and degradation of the work environment.”
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