My small business currently produces a new variety of climate forecasts, centered in New Mexico and reaching across most of the western United States. These forecasts are informed by my research at the University of New Mexico as well as a long history of successful collaborations with scientists at New Mexico’s two major national laboratories.
My firm achieves high forecast accuracy by focusing on correlations which work. In that research we have found that although New Mexico climate shows little correlation to greenhouse gas emissions, there are extraordinary correlations here to ocean indexes.
The correlations between New Mexico moisture and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) can reach up to 90 percent. A similar high correlation exists between New Mexico temperatures and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
Also, pointing towards a physical causation basis, we have found equally significant correlations between the sun and another relevant climatic variable. We now use that to additionally forecast the PDO with high accuracy.