Quantum will be ‘scalable to real problems’ within a decade, says Sandia director

Sandia National Laboratories Director Laura McGill said this week that she believes that in less than 10 years it will have developed quantum computing capabilities “that are scalable to real problems.”

“We are not to the point where we have a full, scalable quantum computer,” McGill said. “But we can see that’s coming … This is an important capability, and I’ll also reinforce that the state of New Mexico has also invested tremendously in quantum.”

Not yet a year into her job as the director of one of the nation’s 17 national laboratories, McGill made the comments on Wednesday to the Economic Forum of Albuquerque — a group of the city’s movers and shakers — at the Albuquerque Museum. Sam Bregman, a Democratic candidate for governor, was among the attendees of McGill’s talk. 

McGill’s comments about quantum computing are significant as the U.S. races with adversaries such as China to make breakthroughs in a science that promises to solve complex problems extraordinarily faster than digital computers can. 

Efficiencies of scale were the topic of the day with McGill, who also touched on artificial intelligence as a game-changer for Sandia. 

McGill told the audience that quantum technologies can assist in Sandia’s national security mission, helping with applications such as sensing devices that could provide precision navigation and timing “in case we want to apply systems in GPS-denied environments, for example.”

That’s not to mention the potential commercial benefits of quantum science. The consulting firm McKinsey & Co. in a 2025 report said that quantum computing alone could “account for nearly $1.3 trillion in value by 2035 and make possible unprecedented business capabilities.” 

McGill said Sandia has been working with technology companies such as Nvidia because “we have the most complex problems and they can see the problems we’re solving today are the problems that industry is going to want to solve in the future.” 

Sandia, she said, is creating a quantum device foundry and is offering up its Quantum Scientific Computing Open User Testbed, or QSCOUT, program for students to “help try out their algorithms on devices that we can build today.”

Leaning on AI

But as overhead costs increase, Sandia has been leaning on artificial intelligence to make it more efficient. AI is helping Sandia with tasks such as procurement, contracts and facilities maintenance, McGill said. 

AI tools also help execute Sandia’s national security mission, which is to ensure the U.S. nuclear arsenal is “safe, secure and reliable, and can fully support our nation’s deterrence policy,” according to a fiscal year 2025 economic impact report it released earlier this year. 

“Sandia uses artificial intelligence and machine learning tools across a range of work to improve efficiency and help researchers and engineers analyze data and model complex systems,” Sandia spokesman Kenny Vigil wrote in an email. “Some of that work supports national security missions, including nuclear deterrence.”

Sherman McCorkle, CEO and founder of the Sandia Science & Technology Park, which hosts some 40 companies with roughly 2,000 employees, including Sandia contractors, said there has been “very little unused space” in the park. 

Asked if he is seeing more companies focusing on AI and quantum, he responded that “it’s going to take substantial investment to move the needle” for those industries to mature. 

“It’s not going to be a stroke of lightning; it’s going to take time,” he said.

In fiscal year 2025, Sandia employed more than 16,300 people, 12,915 of whom are based in New Mexico, according to an economic impact report released earlier this year. Sandia spent $5.2 billion and paid the state $144.3 million in gross receipts taxes. 

Sandia also shed some 400 jobs last year, about 300 of whom voluntarily separated and another 100 who were classified as “limited-term employees.” 

“We expect our employed population to decline slightly but just through natural attrition,” McGill said. 

She added, “We’re going to continue to hire. … We have lots of attrition that happens every year. So even hiring to replace is going to continue.”

But the threat of AI has loomed over the job market in recent months. A viral report released last week from Citrini Research painted a scenario in which advances in the technology would upend white-collar jobs sooner rather than later. 

McGill said Wednesday that she doesn’t see AI threatening Sandia jobs in the near-term, saying that she doesn’t “really see it that way.”

“I mean, over time, yeah, the skills mix will change a little bit,” McGill said. “But mostly what it’s doing today is allowing us to be more efficient at our jobs so we can be more productive overall.”

Justin Horwath covers tech and energy for the Journal. You can reach him at jhorwath@abqjournal.com.