Rising coffee bean prices brew challenges for local roasters and shops

Behind every cup of coffee is the long journey from bean to brew.

The average cup requires about 50 or so coffee beans, grown in forests across the globe and then exported from countries like Brazil. That is, if the weather doesn’t pose obstacles.

No one is more familiar with the java journey than local coffee expert Rachel Langer.

“There’s real supply issues caused by climate change,” said Langer, coffee director for the Albuquerque-based coffee roasting and wholesaling business Red Rock Roasters. “Coffee is such a finicky plant. It likes such a narrow range of temperatures. So basically, there’s not enough coffee because of these extreme weather events.”

As a result, the cost of coffee beans is rising. Weather is just one factor, in addition to a shifting global market and planned tariff activity. Langer, who follows coffee bean trends closely, said the issue comes down to simple supply and demand — a whirlwind of activities putting pressure on local businesses.

According to coffee futures, or contract agreements, traded in New York, the wholesale cost of arabica beans rose above $4 a pound in mid-February, up from less than $2 a pound in January 2024.

Data from sites that track coffee futures show that the cost of arabica beans on the C-market, the global coffee exchange for arabica coffee, has risen significantly since last year. Langer said she has seen prices for some products quadruple over that period.

In addition to supply issues, Langer said demand has intensified with more global markets opening up in countries where coffee drinking has increased.

The Trump administration’s tariff activity could contribute to the spike in prices, especially due to the increased attention the coffee market has received in recent years, Langer said.

Langer said prices for some of the products she’s purchasing have doubled and some have stayed the same, but the increase has been enough to force Langer to raise the cost of what she sells her products for by 7%.

“It’s tough. It’s really hard to survive. You suddenly can’t make a profit and you start spending less money in other places,” said Langer, who added that she feels for coffee shop owners, whose expenses account for more than just the coffee beans.

Langer’s Red Rock Roasters, founded in 1993 by her parents, David and Nancy Langer, regularly sells roasted arabica beans to about 150 coffee shops across New Mexico — giving the company a unique insight into the problems local shops are facing.

Pilar Westell, owner of Zendo Coffee, which opened in 2013, said inflation has touched almost all of her shop’s expenses in some way.

“Milk, half-and-half, heavy cream and all of the supplies that we use in order to function as a shop are also increasing,” Westell said. “It’s not just the beans.”

Westell, who buys her beans from a local coffee roaster called Odacrem Coffee, said she has received two price increase notices for the beans in the past year. She just received a third notice that another potential price increase could be on the way if global prices don’t start dipping soon.

As a result, Westell has had to raise prices for the first time in five years, by 50 cents for all drinks.

“It was a painstaking, very difficult decision to make because I obviously care deeply about being able to provide a product to my customers that is both quality and that’s accessible to everybody,” the Zendo owner said.

Mark Baker, owner of Humble Coffee Co., which opened in 2014, agreed with Langer’s view on the increase of coffee prices being a long game, adding that he has seen prices continually increase over the last 10 years. Baker has also had to raise prices by roughly 50% since opening.

“Over that time, the cost of beans has more than doubled and the cost of everything is going up,” Baker said. “We’re kind of stuck in between wanting to be affordable but also wanting to be able to pay our staff.”

Westell said many of the coffee shop owners she talks to are in the same boat, creating some anxiety in the coffee industry.

Brazil produces roughly a third of the world’s coffee, and the country is seeing even higher demand than usual following a production decline in other coffee-producing countries, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Langer said much of the future will depend on Brazil’s upcoming harvest of coffee beans — which will be collected in the coming summer months — persisting through the country’s ongoing dry weather. But Langer is hopeful.

“If it’s really small, then it’s going to get even more painful,” Langer said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen next week. It’s possible that this is a bubble that will burst, but I just don’t think that’s likely.

She added, “I don’t see a quick turnaround, but I do think that by mid-2026, stocks may recover. If we can all just survive that long.”

In the meantime, Baker and Westell both said the best way for the Albuquerque community to support their businesses and other local coffee shops is to shop locally.

While customers notice price increases, Baker and Westell said most are understanding and appreciate their shops’ transparency.

While many Java junkies consider coffee a must-have, Langer said consumers may need to adjust their mindset about purchasing the drink during times like these.

“My message to consumers is that they should really enjoy their morning cup of coffee because I don’t think people really appreciate that,” Langer said. “It is a very exotic, luxury item. For us, daily, it’s a very normal thing.”