With NM set to open primary elections next year, political impact of change still unclear

SANTA FE — For years, New Mexico voters who decide not to affiliate with a major political party have faced challenges — if not outright barriers — when it comes to voting in primary elections.

But that is set to change next year, after lawmakers approved legislation during this year’s 60-day session allowing roughly 310,000 registered independents to cast a ballot in the primary election without having to change their party affiliation.

For Rodzaiah Curtis, a 20-year-old independent voter who lives on the Navajo Nation near Shiprock, the change has been a long time coming.

Curtis, who attended a committee hearing on the bill during this year’s session, said many younger Native American voters feel disillusioned by the current political system, which he said has divided tribal members.

“We don’t want to be forced into choosing Republican or Democrat,” Curtis told the Journal. “We are independent because of the division.”

While about 23% of registered New Mexico voters did not state a party affiliation as of March, that figure is even higher among younger voters.

Roughly 35% of currently registered voters between the ages of 18 to 25 are independent, according to Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver’s office. And the number of unaffiliated voters within that age group outpaces the number of registered Democrats or Republicans.

Supporters of the semi-open primaries bill celebrated its approval during a Wednesday news conference in Santa Fe, with backers saying the change could increase voter turnout rates in primary elections.

However, some political pundits and election officials are taking a wait-and-see approach to the new law.

Longtime New Mexico political observer Brian Sanderoff said the number of independent voters has grown over the last several decades despite the state’s closed primary system.

He said most independents are disenchanted with both primary political parties, adding that particularly applies to younger New Mexicans.

“They don’t have a burning desire to join one of the parties because they’re less partisan,” said Sanderoff, who is the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc.

But Sanderoff also said independent voters also tend to turn out at a much lower rate in general elections than registered Democrats or Republicans.

In the 2024 general election, for example, about 75% of registered Republicans and 71% of Democrats cast a ballot, compared to just 50% of independent voters.

Looking ahead, Sanderoff said independent voters could be more attracted to moderate candidates than extremists on either side of the political spectrum. However, he also said it could take years for many independents to become regular primary election voters.

He also predicted the number of unaffiliated voters will keep rising, saying, “I think over time a higher percentage of people will register as independent as a result of this law.”

Push to open New Mexico’s primaries a long slog

The push to open New Mexico’s primary elections has faced opposition from Democrats and Republicans alike in recent years, including some top-ranking legislators.

After a group of independent voters filed a lawsuit seeking to open New Mexico’s closed primary system, lawmakers in 2020 passed a bill allowing such voters to participate in primaries, but only if they agreed to register with a political party immediately before casting their ballot.

But few independent voters utilized that option in the 2022 and 2024 primary elections, with critics describing it as a charade that led to more work for county clerks.

Only about 2,100 independents — or less than 1% of those registered at the time — changed their party affiliation to vote in the 2022 primary election.

Meanwhile, New Mexico’s primary election turnout rate has fallen short of 30% in three of the last five primaries going back to 2016.

Mike Michalski, an independent voter who lives near Cochiti Lake, said the current law has forced voters like him to “jump through hoops” in order to participate in primary elections.

“I’m one of those that have never felt comfortable in either party,” Michalski said Wednesday.

Sila Avcil, the executive director of New Mexico Voters First, a group that pushed for the semi-open primaries law, said backers of the new system plan to raise awareness through social media, visits to college campuses and tribal meetings.

She predicted that making it easier for independents to vote in primary elections could have unexpected implications.

“Because more people will turn out, we think elections will be more representative of the population in New Mexico,” Avcil said in a recent interview.

But she also said she’s expecting some candidates to blame semi-open primaries for their defeats in future years.

With the change, New Mexico will join other states like Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and North Carolina that already have semi-open primary elections, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

2026 candidates preparing for new law

The new law technically takes effect in mid-June, but will first be utilized in the June 2026 primary election.

All statewide offices are up for election next year, and several candidates have already announced campaigns in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.

The campaigns of Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman, who are both Democrats, provided statements to the Journal about the new semi-open primaries system.

“With the passage of open primaries, we feel it’s an opportunity to engage those voters on the issues that matter the most to them in their daily lives,” said Bregman campaign press secretary Joanie Griffin, who cited crime, education, economic opportunity and health care access as among those issues.

“Independents, like all New Mexicans, are looking for common sense solutions to these critical issues and we are eager to talk to them about our plan on how to address them,” Griffin added.

Meanwhile, a Haaland campaign spokeswoman said the former U.S. Interior secretary has focused on similar issues since launching her campaign in February.

“Her launch tour took her to rural areas and counties that have often been overlooked,” the Haaland spokeswoman added. “Deb’s record of changing the system and her actions demonstrate that she’ll be a governor for all New Mexicans.”

Toulouse Oliver, the state’s top election official, said she’s caught flack from some fellow Democrats for supporting the push to open New Mexico’s primary elections.

But she said research has shown such a system does not benefit candidates from one particular political party over another.

The secretary of state also said all registered voters — including independents — will receive a mailer in advance of next year’s primary election alerting them of their ability to vote.

She said Wednesday she previously opposed the idea of open primaries, but changed her mind after having to turn away unaffiliated voters while serving as Bernalillo County clerk.

“To me as an election administrator, that is one of the most heartbreaking experiences you can have — telling someone they can’t vote,” said Toulouse Oliver.