Party politics are changing – more NM voters register independent

Independent voters rival Republicans in Bernalillo County in numbers and are expected to surpass them in the coming years, according to political analysts.

Nearly a quarter of voters, 24%, are registered as independent or decline to state, while approximately 28% are Republicans, according to registration statistics from the New Mexico Secretary of State’s Office.

Nationwide, those who identify as independent outnumbered either major party as early as 1991, according to surveys by Gallup. That trend has persisted with 43% of those surveyed identifying as independent, while Democrats and Republicans each clocked in at 27% in 2023.

It is unclear how many of those people are officially registered as independents ahead of the 2024 election as the U.S. Census Bureau releases national statistics after the election.

Closing that 4% gap between independent and Republican voter registrations in New Mexico is not so much a probability as an inevitability, according to longtime New Mexico political analyst Brian Sanderoff of Research & Polling Inc.

“Those who are more likely to declare a party are passing away as they get older,” Sanderoff said, “and they’re being replaced by a younger generation of people who are less enamored with either major party and decide to go unaffiliated.”

In 2018, the majority of new state voters registered as independent, according to the Secretary of State’s Office.

How much power the independent voting bloc has is up for debate. On one hand, independents are desirable targets for campaigns.

“Independent voters have a lot of clout,” Sanderoff said, “to the extent that the political campaigns recognize that by definition, an independent voter is more persuadable.”

However, independents are less likely to actually turn up to the polls, Sanderoff said. This is supported by early voting statistics that show that, as of Oct. 17, only 3.3% of registered independent voters had gone to the polls, accounting for a total of 12% of those who have voted.

Democrats and Republicans have flocked to early voting in much greater numbers, accounting for approximately 51% and 36% of ballots cast respectively.

“That’s probably due to the fact that independents are just less partisan to start, and might just decide that they don’t like any of the candidates and stay home,” Sanderoff said.

Additionally, there are few options outside of the two parties on the ballot in New Mexico. In New Mexico, there are only two independent candidates on the ballot beyond Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who remained on the ballot despite dropping out of the presidential race in August.

One is Zach Withers, a farmer born and raised in the East Mountains who is taking his hands off of the butcher block and stepping into the fray of local politics.

“There’s a lot of hate in our communities, and we have so much more in common than we have differences,” Withers told the Journal. “And we’re being manipulated into supporting two parties that don’t actually have a whole lot of substantive differences on most of the issues that affect everybody’s lives.”

What are those key issues? According to Withers they’re the tangible necessities of life: water and food. For Withers, neither side is doing enough to address water scarcity in the East Mountains.

Powering Withers’ campaign are three volunteers and nearly $3,000 in donations, most of which has been spent on signage and newspaper ads, according to a finance report submitted to the Secretary of State.

Meanwhile his rival, Stefani Lord, the Republican incumbent, has spent more than $50,000 on her reelection campaign thus far and received more than $87,000 in campaign contributions, according to data from the Secretary of State’s Office.

Lord’s top four donors are other candidates’ campaigns, including her own, and the Roosevelt County Republican Central Committee. Withers’ top donors are private citizens who donated from a thousand to a few hundred dollars.

“I actively try to discourage people giving me money,” Withers said. “Go have a face-to-face conversation with your neighbor instead.”

As an independent, Withers had to collect 318 signatures, which is five times as many signatures as a Democratic candidate needs to run. According to the candidate handbook, to run for state representative, District 22, a Libertarian needs 10 signatures, a Republican 114 and a Democrat requires 63. This “muddled” process creates a barrier, Withers said.

Deputy Director of New Mexico Open Elections Perry Radford agrees, calling this inequality in signature threshold a “real impediment” to prospective independent candidates.

New Mexico Open Elections advocates for a range of voting reforms including semi-open primaries, equal ballot access and ranked-choice voting.

New Mexico has a closed primary system, meaning that registered independent and minor party voters are excluded from voting in the primaries — although they can choose to change their political affiliation through same-day registration in order to cast a ballot, and then register again as an independent afterward.

This system discourages a large population from voting, Radford said. Although independents can participate by changing parties, Radford argued, not many do.

“I feel the majority of people are not deeply partisan and are disenfranchised through that (primary) system,” Radford said.

New Mexico is one of only 10 states with closed primaries.

Research shows that young people, who have the highest percentages of independent voters, are disproportionately affected by these ballot barriers.

The shift toward independent votership didn’t happen overnight. The greatest growth in registered independents happened in the 1990s.

From 1990 to 2000, independent voters in New Mexico increased by nearly three times, growing from 6.5% to 17%, statistics from the Secretary of State show.

Urban growth that attracted young people to Bernalillo County, presidential bids by independent candidates such as Ross Perot, and turmoil in the Clinton White House are potential factors to explain this sudden shift.

Back on the farm, Withers said his main goal is to “give people an option that doesn’t suck.”