Dry, warm winter could mean a bad fire season

With a historically warm winter and a lackluster snowpack on top of severe drought, New Mexico could be in for an active fire season in 2026.

“Given the fact that the Climate Prediction Center is calling for an overall warm, dry winter the whole way through, we are really getting set up for a particularly dangerous fire season,” said Andrew Mangham, senior service hydrologist for the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office.

The National Interagency Fire Center predicts above-normal wildland fire potential in eastern New Mexico in February and March, according to its January through April outlook released at the beginning of the month. Much of New Mexico has persistent severe to extreme drought, and drought conditions in the Southwest are expected to worsen through spring, according to the outlook. Severe drought conditions are largely focused in western and southern New Mexico, Mangham said.

Several New Mexico cities also had their warmest December on record in 2025, including Albuquerque.

The peak of the state’s fire season — traditionally April through June, when dry winds kick up — is still far enough away for more wet weather to reduce fire risk, according to Mangham. But as of Friday, the snowpack is still 40% to 50% of normal. That’s thanks to recent storms, as snowpack early in the week was closer to 12% of normal in much of the state.

“This storm that just came through yesterday and the day before will certainly help, but I doubt that it will suddenly get us way above normal in terms of our snowpack,” Mangham said Friday.

Snowpack is an important water source for the state. It releases into soil slowly as snow melts, allowing the soil to get lots of moisture, rather than coming quickly like a monsoon rain and running off. That slow release of moisture helps plants green up in spring and makes plant life that could fuel a wildfire more fire-resistant.

Prescribed burns are part of how land management agencies like the U.S. Forest Service or the New Mexico Forestry Division reduce fire risk. The Santa Fe National Forest implemented three pile burns Friday because wet weather created favorable conditions for pile burns, according to a Forest Service news release. Fire crews will use infrared detection devices, like handheld thermal cameras and drones, to help determine when the pile burns are out, a practice members of New Mexico’s congressional delegation pushed for after the devastating 2022 Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak Fire.

In the preseason, agencies also train firefighters and coordinate with other agencies. Since July, 450 people have been certified to work as wildland firefighters through New Mexico Forestry Division wildland fire classes, which will continue to be offered through April, said George Ducker, wildfire preventions and communications manager. He saw an increase in New Mexicans becoming firefighters or returning to the profession after the Los Angeles fires at the beginning of 2025.

“I don't know if it was because of the L.A. fires or if it was just coincidence, but it was definitely a wake-up call, I think, for a lot of folks,” Ducker said.

New Mexico’s Forestry Division has been meeting with municipal and federal firefighting agencies to make sure communication and coordination are ready ahead of fire season, Ducker said. The dry, warm winter has not really changed how the Forestry Division approached preparedness. With a forecast of above-normal fire potential in eastern New Mexico, Forestry districts in that part of the state are planning to meet with fire response officials from West Texas, where the forecast is also above normal.

“What's special about the east side of New Mexico is that it's flat grassland, and grasses are really flashy fuels,” Ducker said. “They catch fire really fast, and they can allow fire to move really fast, especially in high winds.”

Keeping grass mowed is one way to reduce fire risk in that area, as well as creating a firebreak between grassland and structures. Traditionally, cattle have been very helpful for keeping those grasslands mowed, Ducker said, but as more ranches have been sold cattle aren't as big a factor.

Although the winter weather could mean a bad fire season, a prediction is just a prediction.

“Last year's outlooks at this time for the spring of 2025 were very dire,” Ducker said. “A lot of New Mexico was red for months on end. And we saw a lot of (fire)starts, sure, but we didn't see a lot of really large fires.”