Journal Poll: Heinrich builds double-digit cushion over Domenici

With attack ads playing from both sides, Democrat Martin Heinrich has a clear lead over Republican Nella Domenici in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a new Journal poll.

Running for his third term representing New Mexico, Heinrich has support from 50% of the registered, likely voters surveyed in the Journal poll, while Domenici trails behind him with 38% saying they would vote for her. Domenici’s family name is recognizable to many in New Mexico — her father the late Pete Domenici was the state’s longest serving senator — but this is her first run for public office.

With rounded-off numbers, there were still 9% undecided and 4% who said they would vote for neither candidate.

Heinrich has strong support from liberals, and Domenici has strong support from conservatives, but self-described moderates were also more likely to say they would cast a ballot for Heinrich.

Heinrich’s lead is tighter than the results of his last senate race in 2018 against Republican Mick Rich and Libertarian Gary Johnson, which he won by more than 20 percentage points.

That election “was a Democratic wave year, where all the Democrats were sweeping into office, including Xochitl Torres Small, and so Martin Heinrich essentially ignored his opponents because he was way ahead,” said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Research & Polling Inc, which conducted the poll.

In this race, both candidates have aired attack ads. Domenici has tried to tie Heinrich to the opioid crisis, while Heinrich has tried to frame Domenici as an outsider. Abortion has emerged as a key issue in the race. Heinrich’s campaign claimed a vote for Domenici is “a vote for a national abortion ban” in an attack ad, and Domenici broadcast an ad that says she would vote against such a ban.

Although Domenici is the female candidate, she has much lower support than Heinrich among female voters. The poll found that Heinrich had a 22-point lead with women voters, with 55% of women supporting Heinrich compared to 33% supporting Domenici. Support for each candidate among male voters was close to a tie, with Heinrich ahead by 2 points.

A gender gap in support of Democratic candidates is not unusual, said Sanderoff. Typically, Democratic candidates enjoy higher support among women.

Support among Hispanic voters was also higher for Heinrich than Domenici. Domenici had support from 30% of Hispanics surveyed, compared to 53% support among Hispanics for Heinrich. Domenici has been actively trying to reach Hispanic voters, launching a Hispanic and Latino voter group with New Mexico musical icon Al Hurricane Jr. last month. Among Anglos, Heinrich only has a 4-point lead.

In both the senate and presidential races, support among different ethnicities is flattening out compared to years past, said Sanderoff. Democrats used to have even stronger support among Hispanics, while Republican candidates used to have more support from Anglos.

The bigger shift in demographic support is along educational lines. The poll found 43% of people with high school diplomas or less education or vocational and trade school education support Domenici, with less support from people with college degrees. Heinrich saw support among demographic groups increase with more advanced degrees, with 38% support among voters with high school diplomas or less education or vocational or trade school education, compared to 60% of college graduates and 70% of people with graduate degrees saying they would vote for Heinrich.

Heinrich has tried to appeal to blue-collar workers. His first campaign ad of the year highlighted his father’s career as a lineman, and earlier this year he touted legislation that would create new grant programs for training in trades.

The educational attainment division is also reflected in the presidential race.

The Democratic party has a long-held reputation as the party of labor unions. A decade ago, Democrats enjoyed support among people with a high school education or less, Sanderoff said.

“But in the Trump era, that’s changed, and now we see, regardless of party, those who have less educational attainment levels are more likely to vote Republican,” Sanderoff said.

Heinrich has a strong lead in the Albuquerque metro, with 55% of likely voters’ support, and north central New Mexico, which includes the Democratic stronghold of Santa Fe and Taos, with 66% support. Heinrich was ahead in Las Cruces and southwest New Mexico as well.

Domenici had the strongest level of support in eastern New Mexico, where much of the economy is dependent on oil and gas production. She has 60% support in the region. She is also ahead of Heinrich in the northwest part of the state, with 47% support among those voters.

Poll methodology

The Journal Poll is based on a statewide random sample of 532 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general elections, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 6 through Friday, excluding last Tuesday (due to the presidential debate). The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (88%) and landlines (12%) of likely general election voters were used.