New Mexico population shrinks as immigration plummets

New Mexico was one of four states in the country to report a population decline in 2025, due in part to lower levels of immigration, per data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

For the last five years, immigration has been the sole driver of New Mexico’s population growth. The Land of Enchantment has grown slower than 40 other states in the last quarter-century, and has lagged behind all of its neighbors in the Western U.S., many of which have seen significant population growth from domestic migration in the years since 2020.

Low levels of immigration could have consequences for the state’s economy, according to economists, who say that when U.S.-born residents leave, New Mexico becomes more dependent on immigrant labor.

International migration to New Mexico fell about 73% from July 2024 to July 2025, according to the data, which statisticians attribute to the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration policies. 

Immigration to the United States is projected to decline to approximately 321,000 in 2026, down from a peak of 2.7 million in 2024. The Census Bureau predicts that if trends continue, the U.S. could see its first net negative migration in more than 50 years.

More Americans are leaving New Mexico than are moving to it — between 2020 and 2025, New Mexico lost more than 10,500 people to other states. Deaths also outpaced births during that same period, shrinking the population by nearly 11,500 people. The state’s overall population growth — 0.3% since 2020 — was driven almost entirely by the 30,500 international migrants who came to New Mexico in the last five years.

“Our natural change is going to continue to be negative, which means the only way to have growth is through migration,” said Jacqueline Miller, a research scientist at the University of New Mexico’s Geospatial and Populations Studies Center.

Immigrants tend to be younger, Miller said, and fewer immigrants means fewer children born in New Mexico years down the line.

Some younger immigrants choose to move to the U.S. after college seeking a job, she said. Blue collar fields, too, favor a younger population.

“It likely has an impact on the labor force,” Miller said.

Immigrants make up just over a tenth of New Mexico’s population and almost 13% of its labor force, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the American Immigration Council, a nonprofit advocacy group.

Almost a quarter of New Mexico’s construction workers are immigrants, according to the AIC data, in addition to 18% of workers in manufacturing, 18% of arts, entertainment, hospitality and food service workers, and almost 13% of workers in both education and health care and social assistance.

“We’re going to have many older people who are going to be needing care. Who’s going to care for them?” said Nancy Foner, professor emerita of sociology at Hunter College.

An aging population nationwide, and in New Mexico, means more people leaving the workforce and more people who are needed to fill their jobs, she said.

“It doesn’t bode well, not just for New Mexico, but for virtually every state in the nation,” Foner said. “If you look at it on pure economic grounds and labor force needs, it’s not a sensible policy.”

 Natalie Robbins covers education for the Journal. You can reach her at nrobbins@abqjournal.com.