Will it rain or hit 100 this July 4? Here's the weather forecast for Albuquerque.

Clear skies and hot, dry weather are expected for the Fourth of July, according to the National Weather Service, which is a good sign for party-goers but a bad omen for the onset of the area’s rainy season.

Monsoon season typically begins around the Fourth of July, but this year, that’s not the case, said NWS Meteorologist Brian Guyer. Monsoon season brings afternoon showers, and lower temperatures, but also creates hazardous weather conditions such as thunderstorms and flooding.

“Some years, (on the Fourth of July), we can see like all the thunderstorms off in the distance, and you get kind of a light show with the lightning,” Guyer said.

This year the monsoons, and accompanying storms, are nowhere in sight, at least for now.

“The monsoon set in last year early and it just went gangbusters through the whole summer,” Guyer said.

This year, however, it’ll be a late start to the monsoon season, but it’s unclear exactly when the consistent summer showers will begin. In the meantime, Guyer warned about increased fire danger due to the combination of fireworks and dry conditions.

“Folks need to be really careful with fireworks,” Guyer said.

Current conditions are just right for fires, said Lt. Robert Argüelles with the Bernalillo County Fire and Rescue’s Public Information Office.

On Monday, a small fire started in between homes in Carnuel. The fire burned a quarter acre and caused no damage to structures. BCFR doesn’t yet know what started the fire, Argüelles said.

This year, BCFR has seen an uptick in fires like this one due to dry conditions and low precipitation, he said.

Triple digits coming

The NWS forecast predicts the fourth to be hot, with a high of 99 degrees in Albuquerque. The city should record its first day of the year in the hundreds on Wednesday, with a predicted high of 101.

Guyer anticipates the heat to hover around the high nineties to low hundreds at least until the middle of next week.

The average first 100 degree day in Albuquerque is June 30, although climate change has made predictions based on old averages unreliable, Guyer said.

The June 30 average is based on data from the 1800s to now, but this historic data doesn’t reflect the current realities of a warming planet. The first 100-degree day is trending earlier and earlier in June, he said.

“The variability has definitely increased and is increasing,” Guyer said.