OPINION: Another inauguration, in Lebanon, offers hope for the Middle East

If 2024 ended with “cautious optimism” about Syria, in the wake of that country’s ouster of the Assad regime, 2025 may be beginning with a similar degree of hope for the political change that has come to its neighbor Lebanon. Taken together, the changes in these countries offer reason for “cautious optimism” in the broader Middle East.

Gen. Joseph Aoun won a majority vote in the 128-member parliament to become the new president of Lebanon. This election is significant for at least three reasons: the military is the only trusted national institution in Lebanon; Aoun does not belong to any one of the dozens of political parties and movements in the country; and the election showed the diminishing political and military influence and capability of Hezbollah, following Israel’s attacks in the past six months.

Within five days of taking office, the new president named Nawaf Salam, a renowned international jurist, as Lebanon’s new prime minister. This organizing speed is unprecedented in the recent political history of Lebanon.

The new political and military realities in Lebanon, Syria and regionally in the past year were not lost on Lebanon’s parliamentarians as they chose Aoun and Salam.

For over a quarter of a century, Hezbollah has been recognized as Lebanon’s most potent political force. But its influence was nonexistent in the recent voting, thanks to Hezbollah’s diminishing stature.

Previously, no major developments would have occurred in Lebanon without Hezbollah’s approval. The country did not have a president for two years because Hezbollah did not approve the candidates that were put up in parliament.

Despite my optimism, I am still wary of the enormous challenges that are facing Lebanon’s new leadership. The country’s complex political structure, sectarian tensions, the weak Lebanese state, and the distrust of state institutions are the most immediate daunting challenges. Not to mention the country’s economic paralysis and endemic corruption.

Aoun and Salam must also address other looming challenges including the million-plus Syrian refugees in Lebanon, the country’s relations with Syria’s new leadership, Israel’s presence in the south and the repositioning of the Lebanese forces on the border with Israel.

Corruption has been an outgrowth of sectarianism between Lebanon’s diverse constituencies: Maronite Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, Druze, and secular groups as well as Armenians, and Kurds. Sectarian leaders in charge of the different government departments and ministries, including the ports and transportation, banking and investment, public services and utilities have first and foremost tended to serve their own sects, not the state of Lebanon.

Despite the enormity of the challenges, it is possible for the new Lebanese leadership to chart a hopeful trajectory, if the U.S. engages Lebanon diplomatically and economically. Washington could play a crucial role moving forward.

The new Lebanese government should take several steps to help move the country forward.

• Establish a high-level economic reconstruction council (ERC) with membership from the United Nations Security Council, the United States, the EU — especially France and Germany — and the Gulf Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia. This ERC would analyze the national economy and suggest specific implementable programs on how to revive the economy.
• Create a national council representing the different sectarian and ethnic groups for the purpose of reforming Lebanon’s sectarian politics based on inclusion and equity.
• Reach out to Israel with an eye toward stabilizing the southern border on an extended basis. This step is possible once Israel no longer sees Hezbollah and other militias as a threat to it.

This optimistic scenario will have a chance when the Lebanese people begin to view their government as transparent, honest, accountable, and concerned about the citizenry. As a Lebanese friend told me recently, “What we need is jobs, jobs, jobs — and access to our money in the banks. We are not interested in war with Israel or with anyone else.”

Emile A. Nakhleh, Ph.D., of Albuquerque, is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a consultant on the Middle East, political Islam, radicalization, terrorism, and intelligence. A longer version of this article was published by The Cipher Brief at www.thecipherbrief.com.