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Last week, I said election night was going to show what political shifts are happening in the Duke City. Is it lurching more to the right? Or moving further to the left, like in New York City where a democratic socialist was just elected mayor of America’s largest city?
Turns out, in Albuquerque, there’s not much of a shift.
We’re headed to a runoff election on Dec. 9 between Mayor Tim Keller and former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. Keller and White received 36 and 31% of the vote, respectively. Former U.S. Attorney for the District of New Mexico Alex Uballez earned just nearly 19% of the votes on Election Day. That means Keller and Uballez, whose campaign essentially tried to outflank Keller to the left on his administration’s strategy for dealing with homeless people, combined to capture just under 55% of the vote.
Four years ago, Keller won reelection with 56% of the vote when he was the most liberal candidate in the race. After Keller’s second consecutive term in office and a campaign that positioned all the challengers against Keller, who drew criticism for his handling of various city issues, the city’s progressive voting bloc decreased by a whopping 1 percentage point. Not much of a sea change.
It was a crowded field of seven candidates vying for mayor. The other candidates — all more conservative than Keller and Uballez — captured about 14% of the vote. Uballez and White were effective at winning over undecided voters as debates and other candidate forums ramped up in the last month of campaigning. But voters on Tuesday were aligned 55% to 45% in favor of the liberal candidates.
With the stage set for the next phase of the mayoral campaigns, the biggest questions surround Uballez voters. Will Uballez voters vote in the runoff election on Dec. 9 and who will they choose?
The breakdown shows the runoff isn’t a symptom of the Albuquerque electorate shifting right, but rather because of progressive support being splintered among two viable candidates. Now, make no mistake, the results show voters aren’t thrilled with Keller. Keller’s two biggest challengers — one from the right (White, a Republican) and one from the left (Uballez) — captured 49.5% of the vote. That shows a strong desire for change. Will voters switch political sides in the runoff to make it happen?
Albuquerque’s electorate remains consistently progressive, and Tuesday’s results solidify that. The challenge for Keller is going to be winning the voters who went for Uballez, or even the center-left candidates. Keller already signaled his approach, framing the election as a choice between his vision and a return to “Trump-aligned” policies. If the progressive wing of the city rallies around Keller in the runoff, his mathematical advantage is clear, and he’s likely to win essentially the same share of voters he did four years ago. Voter mobilization is his goal the next five weeks.
For White, his only path to the 11th floor of City Hall is to keep disenfranchised voters disenfranchised.
I can’t see a world where Uballez voters cast their ballots for White. His posture on election night was clear. His goal for the coming weeks will be to prevent Keller from gaining momentum so Democratic-leaning voters don’t show up on Dec. 9.
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“Two-thirds of the voters last night rejected an eight-year incumbent, and that’s because crime and homelessness are out of control,” White told the Journal.
Regardless of what happens next month, the general politics of Albuquerque remain undeniable: Albuquerque is a progressively blue city, even in the face of widespread frustration over crime and safety.
Not to be too pessimistic but here’s my takeaway from election night: Albuquerque is not happy and it’s not going to change.
