OPINION: Open primaries will change party politics

I’ve taken a small but significant step toward running for governor of New Mexico by officially registering with the secretary of state. As I weigh the decision to fully enter the race, one issue continues to keep me up at night: New Mexico’s newly enacted open primary law.

Thanks to legislation passed in the 2025 session, New Mexico voters who are not affiliated with a political party can now vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary elections. The law states: “A voter who has declined to designate on the voter’s certificate of registration a party affiliation but who chooses to affiliate with a major political party … may do so by requesting the ballot of one of the parties participating in that primary election.”

While the secretary of state has not yet issued regulations detailing the process, the implications are already clear: 331,872 New Mexicans — 23.5% of all registered voters — have declined to designate a party affiliation. These voters, often called “no party” or “independent” voters, will now be able to help choose the Democratic or Republican nominee.

That number — 331,872 — isn’t just large. It’s powerful. In five counties, independent voters outnumber registered Republicans. In six counties, they outnumber Democrats. In Bernalillo County, they’re within 10,000 of Republicans. And this bloc is growing faster than any other.

Yet many candidates and party leaders seem to be underestimating what this shift means. Open primaries don’t just tweak the system; they change the rules entirely. For decades, primaries in New Mexico were dominated by the most ideologically committed members of each party. Candidates tailored their messages to appeal to the most zealous base voters and navigated a pre-primary convention system controlled by a few insiders.

That era is over.

Starting in 2026, candidates who want to win a primary will need to earn the trust of all voters — party-affiliated and unaffiliated alike. No longer can they rely on the safe comfort of preaching only to the choir or shifting positions after the primary to appeal to a broader electorate. Messaging, tone and engagement must be consistent from day one.

Open primaries demand more than turnout — they demand persuasion. Campaign “win numbers” can no longer be calculated using a simple formula of 50% plus one of registered party members. Now, that math must include a variable for independent voters who can — and likely will — change the outcome.

This shift also presents a challenge to the political parties themselves. Will they open up and evolve, or cling to outdated, exclusionary practices? Will pre-primary conventions remain relevant when nearly a quarter of voters aren’t even invited?

In a democracy, every voice should count — not just the loudest or the most entrenched. This new law pushes candidates to speak to the full spectrum of voters from the outset, to engage with honesty and consistency and to prioritize ideas over ideology.

Whether or not I move forward with a full gubernatorial campaign, I believe this much is true: New Mexico is changing, and so must our politics. In the 2026 election, it’s no longer about who can win the primary versus who can win the general.

It’s about who can win. Period.

Duke Rodriguez is the president and CEO of Ultra Health and a former secretary of New Mexico’s Human Service Department and executive for Lovelace Health System. He is considering a run for governor.