OPINION: Post-Assad Syria spurs wary optimism for future of Middle East

The lightning speed with which Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, toppled the brutal Assad regime in Syria on Dec. 8 has signaled the rapid change in Syria, and the region. But is this change bad? I’d argue that we have reason to hope.

The faltering of global Islamic jihad, the rise of political Islam, the collapse of the half-century old Shia alliance between Iran and Syria and the failure of Iran’s proxy-based strategic doctrine: these are some of the new realities of the Middle East that the incoming Trump administration will face.

During my interactions with Islamic political parties and groups across the Muslim world in the 1990s and early 2000s, I often heard that a local political movement, as opposed to a violent global jihadist one, was the only possible path to remove autocratic, brutal and corrupt regimes from their societies.

Several leaders from such closed societies told me during my visits that to win national elections, they had to promote platforms centered on bread-and-butter issues and a commitment to a peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box, not bullets.

The public statements made thus far by HTS’s leader, Ahmad al-Shara, also known by his nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, suggest he may fall more into that political tradition of Islamist parties notwithstanding his more radical roots.

Reasons for cautious optimism: My own optimism stems from at least three observations based on my study of HTS since its creation: First it broke with al-Qaida years ago; second, al-Jolani has been explicit in his recognition of the ethnic and religious diversity; and third he has relied on indigenous Syrian leadership.

Al-Jolani made it clear in 2016 that his new group sought the liberation of Syria from the Assad regime and the establishment of a new, pluralistic political order that reflected the ethnic, religious and racial diversity of Syrian society. As a Syrian national, al-Jolani is aware that Syria comprises Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims — including the Alawite minority — Kurds, Armenian Christians of different denominations, Druze, and other small minorities.

While he has urged the population to forgo revenge and retribution, notably against the Alawite community, Assad’s sectarian base, he has promised to prosecute former high-level military, security and intelligence officials responsible for the worst abuses of the Assad era and urged other countries and international organizations to help bring them to justice.

Of course, in many regime-change rebellions, history has shown that aggrieved members of the public often hunt down targeted officials of the old regime and summarily execute them without trial. Unfortunately, Syria is unlikely to fully escape this pattern, but there are hopeful signs that these sporadic executions may not descend into a new reign of terror.

None of this is assured. As in the U.S. occupation of Iraq, too broad a crackdown against former regime officials, particularly if it is perceived as motivated by sectarianism, could trigger a violent backlash. Similarly, strict enforcement of Sharia law against minority sects could turn key communities against the new administration in ways that external powers could exploit.

The path forward: It might be Pollyannish, just weeks since the fall of Damascus, to expect stability and calm to prevail and government departments to be fully functional.

HTS is currently listed by the United States as a terrorist organization, and there is a huge reward on al-Jolani’s head. This designation, however, was made nearly a decade ago before the Syrian rebels broke with al-Qaida.

While the Biden administration is watching the actions of the new Syrian government closely, the incoming Trump administration could contribute greatly to Syrian stability if it considers a new designation for HTS — if the new government, when fully formed, reflects the Syria’s diversity and follows through on the commitments to respect human rights and the rule of law.

My assessment of HTS and its leadership’s intentions may yet prove wishful thinking, but thus far, the signs are positive for a country and a region that have endured far too much suffering.

Emile A. Nakhleh is former research professor and founding director of the Global and National Security Policy Institute at the University of New Mexico, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.