Around the Mountain: Life outside power conferences requires winning in the margins

Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway successfully made the college basketball world overlook the fact that his team got blown out Saturday in Logan, Utah. Good for him.

Last thing you'd want to do if you're Penny and your preseason AAC champion Tigers fell below .500 for the first time this late in the season for the first time in more than a quarter century (since the 1999-2000 Johnny Jones-coached Tigers finished 14-16) is have people pay attention not just to your team's result, but the fact that they appeared to quit on you down the stretch.

So, after Utah State's M.J. Collins did a windmill dunk with 3 seconds remaining in Saturday's 99-75 win over the Tigers in a rare nonconference game in February (I loved the scheduling of this game, by the way!), the former star player-turned-coach decided to make sure to show the world in the hand shake line his displeasure with the way things ended — both with the dunk and the 13-2 run the Aggies went on to close the game when his team apparently decided it had enough.

"You can’t keep scoring the ball," Hardaway said on his postgame radio show. "You gotta have more class than that. You’ve just gotta have some type of class, seriously."

Jerrod Calhoun after the game noted the necessity for any team in his position (i.e., playing in the Mountain West or any league outside the power structure) to keep scoring as long as efficiency ratings are part of the computer formulas determining postseason resumes:

"Unfortunately, the way the rules are written with the analytics, the last two baskets we would not have scored under normal circumstances, but the deck is totally stacked against mid-majors now. You have teams that have 10 and 20 million dollar rosters. We don’t have that. We don’t have the ability to play a bunch of Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, we can’t get them. 

"The way we’re measured, we almost have to be perfect, let’s call it like it is. The Power 4’s can lose 12-13 games, we can lose five. Every possession is measured, and we’ve got to score the ball there. We play by the rules, and those are the rules that KenPom and BartTorvik and the NCAA selection committee wants us to play by. I would never have done that to Coach Hardaway otherwise."

Some have pointed out one basket at the end of the game hardly affect the metrics. And I don't disagree.

But "hardly" affecting the metrics isn't the same as NOT affecting the metrics. And when, as Calhoun said, you aren't in the power conference structure, you don't get to play Quad 1 and Quad 2 games every week just by virtue of being in the conference. And you play 20-plus Quad 1 and 2 games a season, you many win seven or eight even in a bad year. You play seven or eight of those games like Mountain West teams get in good years and even if you win most of them, you're still looking like you came up short in a metric the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses to judge your worthiness of postseason play.

So what is a Mountain West level team to do? 

They have to win in the margins. Every small advantage you can get, even if that's what some are acting like is a mortal sin of playing until the final buzzer, you take. 

Everywhere where there is a chance to gain an inch, improve just a fraction of a decimal point in the computer formulas that might be all some committee members ever see of your team in a season, you've got to take advantage of. Even if that means scoring on every last possession you can to improve, ever so slightly, the efficiency numbers that are based on points per possession.

It's not just Utah State, a team likely in the NCAA Tournament, though one not likely to get a high seed despite it's tremendous season thus far.

Look at the UNM Lobos, for instance. They were up 38 on the UNLV Rebels on the road on Jan. 27 and emptied the bench, putting in even seldom-used Timeo Pons. The Rebels went on a 13-0 run at one point and what could have been maybe a 40-point win turned into "just" a 28-point win.

Did it change the computer metrics much? No. But did it affect them some? Yes.

On Jan. 21, the Lobos were blowing out Fresno State (71-51 with under 4:56 left to play) before letting up late. Fresno State scored 25 points in the final five minutes and lost by just nine. 

Did it change the computer metrics much? No. But did it affect them some? Yes.

In the case of the Lobos, as of Monday night they were 19-6 overall and ranked 44th in KenPom.com — one spot ahead of the Big 12's Baylor with a 13-12 record.

According to most bracket projections released Monday, the Lobos are just outside the NCAA Tournament picture right now.

At the end of the season, what the committee cares about is what they see on a school's final "team sheet" that they review to make the NCAA Tournament bracket. As long as the only place to gain ground on those team sheets for Mountain West teams is in those computer formulas and not by power conference schools agreeing to schedule them for Quad 1 opportunities, then you better bet teams like Utah State and New Mexico better play until the final buzzer, winning in the margins at every turn.

And now, nonconference play is over

Speaking of that Utah State/Memphis game, it was the league's final nonconference game of the season.

Let's put a bow on some league notes in noncoference play:

• .649 nonconference win streak overall, one of seven conferences over .640 (A10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big 10 and SEC)
• Utah State (10-1) had the best nonconference record in the MW with a .909 win percentage. UNM (9-2), Colorado State (9-2) and Wyoming (9-2) were tied for second with a .818 win percentage
• Air Force (3-8), San Jose State (5-6) and UNLV (5-6) had losing nonconference records.
• The league went undefeated against * leagues: Southland (6-0), SWAC (3-0), Missouri Valley (2-0), Big East (1-0), Ivy (2-0), MEAC (1-0) and Southern (1-0).

Conference stats leaders

We haven't checked in on league leaders in awhile. Here are the top three players in five major statistical categories entering the week (conference games only for these stats):

Scoring

1. 21.8 — Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, UNLV
2. 18.9 — Corey Camper Jr., Nevada
3. 17.0 (tie) — Jake Hall, New Mexico
4. 17.0 (tie) — Jaden Henley, Grand Canyon

Rebounds

1. 10.5 — Tomislav Buljan, New Mexico
2. 9.5 — Elijah Price, Nevada
3. 9.4 — Wilson Jacques, Fresno State

Assists

1. 4.5 — Drake Allen, Utah State
2. 4.3 — Zaon Collins, Fresno State
3. 4.1 — Tayshawn Comer, Nevada

3-pointers per game

1. 3.2 — Jake Hall, New Mexico
2. 2.93 — Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, UNLV
3. 2.92 — Corey Camper Jr., Nevada

Blocks

1. 2.1 — Tyrin Jones, UNLV
2. 1.9 — Elijah Price, Nevada
3. 1.6 — Carey Booth, Colorado State

Steals

1. 2.6 — Myles Byrd, San Diego State
2. 2.1 — Nana Owusu-Anane, Grand Canyon
3. 1.8 — Elijah Price, Nevada

MW Players of the Week

Here are the Player and Freshman of the Week awards as selected by the Mountain West league office:

• Player of the Week: Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, UNLV — When Gibbs-Lawhorn is in a zone, and his "zones" seem to last a good 10 minutes or more at a time, he's basically unguardable. That was the case down the stretch in UNLV's road overtime win at Boise State. The transfer from Illinois scored 25 of his career-high 36 points after halftime of that win and he averaged 30.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists in a two-win week for the Rebels, also beating San Jose State at home.
• Freshman of the Week: Elijah Perryman, Utah State — The second Aggies freshman award in a row — last week to Adlan Elamin, this week to the high-potential point guard who averaged 13.0 points and 8.0 assists in wins over Fresno State and a nonconference win over Memphis.

Weekly Nique

In an effort to correct the league's weekly awards when needed, or at least recognize a few more players around the conference, Colorado State fan and podcaster Steve Ivy and I hand out our own player awards each Monday. We call them the Weekly Nique, named after current NBA player Nique Clifford who somehow only won the league's award once in his Mountain West career at Colorado State.

This week, we agreed (two weeks in a row, actually) with the league's picks, but still had some love to spread around for a couple other players.

• WEEKLY NIQUE POW: Kimani Hamilton, UNLV — We had a theme this week. We agreed with the league's pick for Player of the Week in UNLV guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, but also thought the emergence of Hamilton (18.0 points, 8.0 rebounds in a two-win week helped make UNLV like a pretty worthy team for top half of the standings. (We also gave some love to Tyrin Jones, a third UNLV player, in the freshman of the week discussion).
• WEEKLY NIQUE POW: Jake Hall, New Mexico — He didn't win the league's award despite a put the team on his back in crunch time clutch performance on the road last week at Grand Canyon, but that's largely due to his playing just one game. No sweat, the guy who broke the Mountain West's freshman 3-pointer record in that GCU win (in just 25 games played) gets our nod for Weekly Nique.

We also gave some freshman love to Jones, as mentioned above; Air Force forward Lucas Hobin (43 points scored last week and five made 3s in the two losses, at Fresno State and vs. Colorado State); and Fresno State's Wilson Jacques (12.0 points, 10.0 rebounds on the week).

Watch the episode below:

Opposite ends of the bench

The injury-riddled San Jose State Spartans played just seven players in last Tuesday's (Feb. 10) loss at UNLV, including just five minutes for starter Marcus Overstreet, who was injured.

In Saturday's home loss to Grand Canyon, Tim Miles' squad played just six players with the one bench player, Japhet Moupadele, playing only 18 minutes before fouling out.

On the other end of the spectrum though not necessarily the other end of the standings, the Air Force Falcons in Saturday's loss at Air Force played 14 players and got 57 of its 63 points scored in the game from freshmen.

So what would you rather have: six players total or 14 available non-scholarship players of which freshmen are pretty much doing all the scoring?

Poll position

No Mountain West teams were ranked in Monday's latest Associated Press Top 25 poll, but the Utah State Aggies were in the "others receiving votes" section of the poll.

• Utah State Aggies: 45 points, two spots out of the poll, appeared on 21 of 61 voter ballots with a high vote of No. 21 by Percy Allen of the Seattle Times.

Net gains

Let's check in on two of the more publicized metrics for the Mountain West.

Mountain West's KenPom ratings as of 2/16

• 24 Utah State
• 41 San Diego State
• 44 New Mexico
• 58 Boise State
• 59 Nevada
• 67 Grand Canyon
• 93 Colorado State
• 99 Wyoming
• 122 Fresno State
• 127 UNLV
• 253 San Jose State
• 347 Air Force

Mountain West NET ratings as of 2/16 

(Quad 1/Quad 2 wins in parenthesis)

• 23 Utah State (3/5)
• 41 San Diego State (1/5)
• 44 New Mexico (1/6)
• 59 Nevada (0/3)
• 60 Boise State (2/4)
• 76 Grand Canyon (2/3)
• 95 Colorado State (0/4)
• 101 Wyoming (0/0)
• 131 UNLV (3/2)
• 137 Fresno State (0/0)
• 265 San Jose State (0/0)
• 345 Air Force (0/0)

My five

Here are five games I'm looking forward to this week around the Mountain West, listed in order they are played:

• Grand Canyon at San Diego State: Tuesday, 8 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network) — San Diego State can't seem to beat GCU in Phoenix (the 70-96 Lopes win on Jan. 21 was with some controversy at the end of the game), but the Aztecs are eager to show it's a different story in Viejas Arena. Also, with Magoon Gwath back healthy, SDSU wants to hit stride in the next couple weeks as close to full health as it's been much of the season. GCU, meanwhile, can't afford many more losses if it wants to past Nevada for the No. 4 seed (Nevada will hold the tiebreaker with the Lopes, so GCU has to finish with a better record than Nevada).
• Boise State at Utah State: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. MT (FS1) — The Broncos haven't won in Logan since 2022 and have lost six of the last seven to the Aggies. Leon Rice's teams generally don't have stretches like that against any team in Mountain West play. Bad news for the Broncos is Utah State thumped them by 25 earlier this season in Boise.
• Colorado State at UNLV: Wednesday, 9 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network) — When CSU beat UNLV at home on Jan. 9, we might not have seen the standings looking the way they do now. The Rams seemed on the uptick after the toughest start to conference play in the league and UNLV just dropped back-to-back games on the Front Range to Wyoming and CSU and were 2-2. This go 'round, both teams are entering the game on three-game win streaks and both would love to get out of the 7-10 spots in the standings as those seeds would likely have to face San Diego State or Utah State in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Tournament.
• San Diego State at Colorado State: Saturday, 4 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network) — Why would a game featuring a team tied for 8th in the standings entering the week against the co-first place Aztecs, who beat CSU by 23 points less than a month ago in California, be on this list? Well, because history tells us San Diego State has real issues in Fort Collins. The last four games between the two over the past four years in Moby Arena: CSU win (68-63), CSU win (79-71), SDSU win in overtime (82-76), CSU win (58-57).
• Utah State at Nevada: Saturday, 8 p.m. MT (FS1) — According to KenPom, Utah State has just two games remaining with a win probability under 60%. There is a projected one-point loss at San Diego State next week (Feb. 25) and then there's this game at Lawlor Arena in which the old KenPom computer predicts an Aggies win, but by just one bucket, 76-74. Steve Alford and Co. would love nothing more than to play spoiler for the Aggies and get another step closer to securing a top four spot in the MW Tournament.

Reach Geoff Grammer at ggrammer@abqjournal.com or follow him on Twitter (X) @GeoffGrammer.