Colorado State does two specific things that can stymie the Lobos

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UNM’s Donovan Dent goes up for a shot against Colorado State’s Nique Clifford during their February 2024 game at the Pit. Dent and Clifford are among the leading scorers in the Mountain West this season.

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There may not be as much Madness in Moby on Saturday as there would be if school was in session or if many Colorado State fans weren’t in Tucson thanks to the rare Rams football bowl game appearance (Lobo fans can relate, mind you) happening later that day.

But don’t tell Richard Pitino that Saturday won’t be a tall order for his team.

His Lobos (9-3, 1-0 MW) last played on Dec. 18 — a 78-71 win in the Pit over a very good VCU team. Then came a 10-day break with far more time away from the practice court than on it.

CSU (7-5, 1-0 Mountain West) is feeling confident coming off a big road win over Nevada last weekend and also has had success against UNM, winning four of the seven games the two have played since Pitino has been coach.

Have the Rams been able to give the Lobos headaches due to CSU coach Niko Medved’s style of play, or something else?

“Well, I mean, I think they’re a tough matchup because they’ve been good, you know?” Pitino said Friday. “... And (now) you’ve got a guy like Nique Clifford, who’s terrific. Their system, they run great stuff,” he said.

Clifford, an NBA prospect, is the only player in the Mountain West averaging a double-double (16.3 points per game, 10.7 rebounds per game) and leads the nation in defensive rebounds.

During Pitino’s UNM tenure, the Rams have had plenty of talent, led by Mountain West greats Isaiah Stevens and David Roddy — both now in the NBA (Roddy with the Atlanta Hawks, and Stevens signed a two-way contract with the Miami Heat this week).

But the Rams have also employed schemes that take away two specific Lobo strengths.

First, the Rams pretty much ignore offensive rebounding, even if it’s at the expense of second-chance points, so they can take away teams trying to score in transition, something the Lobos have excelled at since Pitino has been at UNM.

According to KenPom.com, the Rams over the past three and a half seasons have ranked 341st, 355th, 301st and through 12 games this season are 339th (out of 364 Division I teams) in offensive rebound rate.

While fast break points aren’t necessarily the same as scoring in transition, it is a good indicator of a team’s ability to score before a defense gets set — something UNM’s offense loves to try to exploit and CSU’s defense loves to try to eliminate.

Lobos three-year average (102 games):

  • 13.9 fast break points per game

Lobo losses to CSU (four games):

  • 9.3 fast break points per game

Lobo wins over CSU (three games):

  • 14.7 fast break points per game

The other thing CSU does that has hurt the Lobos sounds obvious for a team to do: The Rams don’t foul much, and the free throw line is a place where an attacking guard-heavy team like UNM scores a ton of points.

A less physical defense has plenty of risk, but the lack of fouling has been something that has really bit the Lobos recently in this series.

Even if not making free throws, just getting to the line has often been a good indicator that the Lobos’ offense is flowing and the defense is struggling to handle the team’s attacking style.

Consider these numbers from the past seven games in this series:

Lobos three-year average (102 games):

  • 15.7 free throws made per game
  • 21.5 free throws attempted per game

Lobo losses to CSU (four games):

  • 9.3 free throws made per game
  • 13.5 free throws attempted per game

NOTE: This includes a 2-for-4 free throw game in 2022 and a 4-for-11 game last season in Fort Collins.

Lobo wins over CSU (three games):

  • 13.7 free throws made per game
  • 19.0 free throws attempted per game

This season, CSU’s 34.9% defensive free throw rate ranks 216th in the country and is much higher than the three previous season rates of 25.6%, 29.6% and 31.7%.

HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS: Many Lobos players and staff got to travel to see friends or family over the Christmas break, hopefully resetting mentally in the process.

“Great Christmas break. Guys got opportunities to get home and spend some time with family,” Pitino said. “Had a couple little travel issues, so we had to push practice back a little bit, but nothing too bad, which was great. That’s always the fear.”

Pitino spent two days in Miami last weekend for a planned trip to play golf with his dad and brother.

Pitino confirmed none of the player travel issues were related to Nelly Junior Joseph, who infamously had a student visa problem that prevented him from returning to the United States last season until the day before UNM’s first exhibition game.

Instead of returning to Albuquerque, UNM will head straight from Colorado to Fresno, California, where they play the Fresno State Bulldogs on Tuesday.

“It just was cheaper. They don’t have class, so we’re going to stay out on the road,” Pitino said. “Obviously it’s always easier logistically when they’re not in class. This time of year is a little bit easier (game travel) for everybody.”

TRU THAT: Tru Washington appears to be recovering from the quadriceps contusion that led to him missing the Dec. 18 win over VCU.

“He practiced yesterday,” Pitino said. “We don’t think it’s really, really serious. He got an MRI yesterday. Still has some pain, but I think it’s getting a little bit better.”

TIME CHANGE: Saturday’s game starts at 1 p.m. moved up an hour so CSU fans have more time to enjoy the Rams football team in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl. The bowl game will be shown after the basketball game in Moby Arena.

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