Wright: Where will New Mexico end up when conferences finish realignment?

Just call ’em the Lucky Lobos. When it comes to conference affiliation, they’ve always landed on their figurative four feet.

From the Border Conference (1931-51) to the Skyline (‘51-62) to the Western Athletic (‘62-99) to the Mountain West (‘99-present day), the Lobos have never been loop-less.

Whether UNM’s luck holds up in the face of the Pac-2’s predations — and, yes, of course, it’s not all about luck — remains to be seen.

To know how, when and where the dominoes fall from here, you’d need an ouija board.

As has been reported, four member schools of the Mountain West Conference — Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State — have made a definitive State-ment. They’re leaving for the Pac-however-many, starting with the fall of 2026.

For UNM, if not an outright gut punch, this is, shall we say, quite unsettling.

The newly minted Pac-6 can’t stay at six and be a full-fledged NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision conference. Oregon State, Washington State and the four future former Mountain West schools will need at least two more.

Another two Mountain West schools, Air Force and UNLV, appear to be the most likely targets. Should they leave, the MW would consist of Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State, Wyoming and Hawaii (football only). That would leave the Mountain West short of the eight members the FBS requires.

So, the Mountain West would need to do what the Pac-2 did: go hunting. The obvious targets, or so it would seem: UTEP and New Mexico State.

What’s less obvious, at least without more information, is whether UTEP and NMSU would choose to leave Conference USA.

They would, of course, take the call; New Mexico State Athletic Director Mario Moccia told the Journal as much on Thursday. It is known that, in the past, both schools have coveted Mountain West membership.

But if the Mountain West ain’t the Mountain West anymore — minus four of its current member schools, and some heavy hitters — leaving C-USA for the unknown might not seem such a good idea.

Worst case for the Mountain West, and perhaps for UNM: What if the Pac-6 is not content to be the Pac-8 but wants once again to be the Pac-12? Suppose four more Mountain West schools get invitations?

Would New Mexico be among them?

Probably so, likely bringing more to the party than a Nevada, an Utah State or a San Jose State.

But, worst case aside, it’s highly unlikely the Mountain West will cease to exist, as the Skyline Conference did when the WAC was formed in 1962 — leaving charter member Utah State without a conference from 1962-78, sending Montana spinning into a lower classification and perhaps prompting charter member Denver University to drop football entirely, though the Pioneers did so several months before the WAC became reality.

New Mexico State and UTEP, meanwhile, are no stranger to the conference carousel.

For NMSU, in football especially, it’s been quite the wild ride.

In 1962, when charter members Arizona and Arizona State left for the newly formed WAC, the Border Conference — New Mexico State’s home for the previous 31 seasons — ceased to exist.

The Aggies competed as an independent for a decade. Then came 12 years in the Missouri Valley Conference, 17 in the PCAA/Big West, four in the Sun Belt, eight in the WAC, one as an independent, four more in the Sun Belt, then five more as an independent before NMSU joined Conference USA last year.

If the Aggies thus would be reluctant to abandon C-USA for a significantly weakened Mountain West, adding yet another sticker to their steamer trunk, who could blame them?

A story by The Athletic, via the New York Times, actually cites neither New Mexico State nor UTEP as among the most likely targets for Mountain West expansion. Its list: 1) North Dakota State; 2) South Dakota State; 3 A and B) Montana and Montana State. As one old enough to remember when New Mexico and Montana were fellow members of the Skyline Conference, I find it both amusing and nostalgic to consider the idea they might become league rivals again some six decades later.

All four are FCS football powerhouses — as Montana State underscored by beating the Lobos at University Stadium on Aug. 31. But dipping into the Big Sky Conference for survival would not paint a pretty picture for the Mountain West.

Only then does The Athletic list 5) UTEP and 6) New Mexico State as MW expansion targets. The Athletic’s story isn’t particularly strong on whys and wherefores.

One thing to keep in mind: in 1998, when Colorado State President Al Yates reached out to his BYU and Utah counterparts in a push to form what would become the Mountain West, UNM was by no means a unanimous choice to gain membership.

Just sayin’.