Bad weather, good football

Late-game heroics, freezing weather and snow. It's all made for must-see TV this NFL playoff season.

The past two weeks have been largely unpredictable. At least according to me. After jumping aboard visiting teams two weeks ago, that successful formula spelled doom last week.

Dating to the first round of the 2021 postseason, visiting teams in the wild-card round went 5-19 through 2024. But this season the road teams were 4-2, with four division winners getting an early KO for the first time since 2016.

Then last weekend in the divisional round all the home teams beat the spread for the first time since 1990. Although the host Bears beat the line against the LA Rams they wound up losing the game in overtime at frosty Soldier Field.

On Sunday those Rams will be attempting to continue their quest to become the first wild-card team to win the championship since Tampa Bay five years ago.

Meanwhile, in the AFC title game, New England is favored in Denver, marking the third time the Broncos have been the home dog in this round. And on those previous two occasions they won, topping the Patriots 20-18 as a 3-point underdog in the 2015 postseason and drubbing Oakland 20-17 as a 3.5-point dog in 1977. No other AFC team in the conference finals won as a home underdog the past 48 years.

Now for a look at the matchups:

SUNDAY

---> No. 2 New England Patriots (16-3) at No. 1 Denver Broncos (15-3), 1 p.m.

Patriots -4.5 (42.5 O/U)

Denver's hopes to advance to the Super Bowl took a hit when QB Bo Nix was ruled out for the rest of the postseason because of an ankle fracture that wasn't detected until after last Saturday's 33-30 overtime victory over Buffalo.

Thus, Denver coach Sean Payton promoted QB Jarrett Stidham to the starting role despite the fact he hasn't thrown a pass in a regulation game in more than two years. At least he'll be well-rested.

It was reported Stidham will become the first QB to make his initial start of a season in a conference title game since 1972, when former New Mexico Military Institute star Roger Staubach stepped in for Dallas in relief of benched Craig Morton. (As an FYI, Morton later wound up with Denver and was the QB who directed the previously mentioned upset home win in the 1977 conference final over Oakland.).

Stidham will be matched against Patriots QB Drake Maye, the league's top-ranked passer. That's largely why NE is listed as a 4.5-point road favorite against the AFC's No. 1 seed, matching the biggest spread for a visiting team in conference title game history.

Of concern to the Patriots involves pass protection.

In both of NE's playoff victories, over the LA Chargers and Houston Texans, they yielded five sacks. That total could escalate this week against a Broncos defense that was the runaway leader in sacks.

On the other hand, what chance does "Stiddy" have against a Patriots defense that intercepted Houston QB C.J. Stroud four times last week? The Broncos would be more of a threat if leading rusher J.K. Dobbins can return from his foot injury (day-to-day).

As for the weather, the forecast called for a temperature at kickoff of 18 degrees and a wind chill of 11. There's a slight chance of snow.

The pick: Patriots 23, Broncos 13

Fun fact: After the Patriots opened the season 1-2 their Super Bowl odds ballooned to 125-1 at BetMGM. Now their odds are +250.

---> No. 5 LA Rams (14-5) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (15-3), 4:30 p.m.

Seahawks -2.5 (46.5 O/U)

This will be their third meeting since mid-November, with the Rams winning 21-19 at home as a 3-point choice and then the Seahawks winning in Seattle in Week 16 by 38-37 in overtime as a 1.5-point favorite.

In that recent meeting LA squandered a 16-point fourth-quarter lead and wasted a 225-yard receiving performance by Puka Nacua, the most for any pass catcher in a game this season.

But while the Seahawks haven't had to travel since the playoffs opened, first enjoying a bye and then crushing San Francisco last week 41-6, the Rams have been piling up frequent-flyer miles, if there is such a thing on team charters.

Two weeks ago they flew to Carolina to face the Panthers in the wild-card round and won 34-31 as a 10-point pick. Then last week was a trip to Chicago And now to Seattle. Their roughly 8,700 round-trip miles in this stretch is just shy of what Cincinnati's total was all year.

In bad news for Seattle is the loss of RB Zach Charbonnet (knee). But the Seahawks still have Kenneth Walker, who rushed for 116 yards and three TDs last week.

Weather-wise, there is a better than 50 percent chance of rain.

The pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 20

Fun fact: The Rams had a plus-3 turnover advantage in Chicago but didn't cover the spread. In other games this season teams with a plus-3 edge went 31-1 ATS. The only other point-spread loss occurred in Week 11 in LA's victory against Seattle.

RECORDS

Last week's picks: 1-3 against spread; 3-1 straight up

Season record: 131-140-8 ATS; 165-94-1 SU

Looking ahead: Here are the odds of potential Super Bowl matchups provided to the Journal by the Westgate SuperBook:

The Rams would be a 9.5-point pick over Denver, or if the Patriots advance, LA would be a 3.5-point choice.

Seattle would be an 8.5-point favorite over the Broncos or 3.5 over New England.