Grammer: Mountain West hoops projections heading into conference play

Richard Pitino sits down in front of recording cameras and hot mics four to five times a week.

He’s bound to say something good every now and then.

Asked a few weeks ago about Donovan Dent’s “great” season, Pitino corrected the television reporter who asked it to say he thought the junior point guard was having a good season, maybe, but not a great one.

After Dent’s 40-point outing last week against a VCU team that ranks in the top 10 nationally in defense and hasn’t allowed any other player to score 20 points in regulation this season, Pitino said Dent is a tremendous player, who played great against VCU and has a chance to have a great season. Just stop asking the teacher to post the grades before the school year is over.

“I always say this about our world that we live in,” Pitino said. “We give a movie review before the movie’s over. We just do it all the time. Everybody does. It’s not just one person. The season’s not over yet. There’s no, ‘Oh, you started off slow...’ No. At the end of the game, the score dictates the way the game went.”

Those are good, maybe not great, words to live by.

If you’re a coach.

The rest of us want rankings, judgment and debate all the time.

So, as Mountain West play begins in earnest Saturday (five of the 110 scheduled league games were sprinkled in over the past few weeks), let’s get to that movie review before the movie is over.

Here is a look at my current Mountain West basketball projected order of finish and player awards for this season, and how it compares to my preseason media poll ballot from two months ago.

Grammer’s midseason MW projections (and his preseason prediction)

1. San Diego State (preseason 4)

2. Utah State (preseason 5)

3. New Mexico (preseason 2)

4. Boise State (preseason 1)

• • •

5. Colorado State (preseason: 7)

6. Nevada (preseason: 3)

7. UNLV (preseason: 6)

8. Wyoming (preseason: 10)

9. San Jose State (preseason: 8)

10. Air Force (preseason: 9)

11. Fresno State (preseason: 11)

Title hunting: The “• • •” in the list above is the line of demarcation between the teams I think can win a Mountain West title and those that can’t.

In the preseason, I would have had Nevada in the contender tier, would not have had Utah State and, if you told me I had to cut it off at three teams, I would have left San Diego State on the outside looking in (but I did have the Aztecs as my preseason No. 4, so they’d have made a four-team cut like I have here).

So, while I have UNM down from No. 2 to No. 3, I still believe that their “A game” is MW championship caliber. But I also think they let lesser teams hang around too long, which haunts them without an energy guy on the roster like Jaelen House a season ago. (See the San Jose State win and NMSU loss in the Pit for examples).

Do I really think Utah State will finish second? I mean, I don’t think I think that. Do I? Then again, I just wrote it, and once it’s in print or on the internet, that pretty much makes it true.

Well, until my next list comes out.

Biggest movers: Four teams have moved three spots in my projections: two teams up three spots and two teams down three spots.

• Up 3: San Diego State from No. 4 to No. 1
• Up 3: Utah State from No. 5 to No. 2
• Down 3: Boise State from No. 1 to No. 4
• Down 3: Nevada from No. 3 to No. 6

Nailed it! Hey, I’m holding strong on Fresno State. I picked them 11th in the preseason and still think that is where they will finish in the standings.

There’s one preseason pick I still stand by today.

Grammer’s midseason player picks

With team success being at least a small part of the equation (or a huge part of the equation if you’re the staffer who is filling out your coach’s postseason ballot), I would say there are six players I would consider MW Player of the Year candidates (listed alphabetically):

• G Nick Boyd, San Diego State
• G Miles Byrd, San Diego State
• F Tyson Degenhart, Boise State
• G Donovan Dent, New Mexico
• G Mason Falslev, Utah State
• G Ian Martinez, Utah State

Nique Clifford and Nick Davidson don’t make my cut as “contenders” only because I’m projecting them to be outside the championship tier.

Now, my official midseason player awards:

Player of the Year:

• Preseason: Degenhart, Boise State
• Now: Dent, UNM

Newcomer of the Year:

• Preseason: Kobe Sanders, Nevada
• Now: Boyd, SDSU

Freshman of the Year:

• Preseason: Magoon Gwath, SDSU
• Now: Gwath

So, there you go. A midseason makeover for my Mountain West predictions.

I fully reserve the right to call back to any of these later this season when they are spot on or pretend they never happened when I am proven wrong.

For now, enjoy the rest of the movie.