Lobos are feasting, but there's still meat on the metrics bone

The UNM Lobos are on a tear. And the computer metrics reflect as much.

The team that started the season at No. 97 in the KenPom.com rankings is now sitting at No. 42.

The team that was rated 112 in the NCAA's initial NET rankings released on Dec. 1 is now sitting at No. 38.

The team that is one of only three Division I programs in the country that didn't return a single player or staff member from last season now finds itself on the inside of most NCAA Tournament projections, which are also based on those metrics.

For coach Eric Olen and his Lobos (17-4 overall, 8-2 Mountain West), while the strides made so far are undoubtedly great signs, they also aren't exactly in any sort of comfort zone yet.

"There's still a lot of basketball left to play," Olen said in one form or another to multiple questions tossed his way by reporters at a Thursday media session in the Pit.

Building up those computer metrics — as horrible as that phrase is to the old guard fan — is part of what solidifies a team's resume for possible invitation to the NCAA Tournament.

The margin for error is slim, and the margin of victory matters. Of course winning helps, but winning big helps a whole lot more.

And that's where the nitpicking of an otherwise great run of Lobo basketball comes into play.

Even if you overlook some early season games where bad teams kept it closer than the computers would have preferred against the Lobos — Alabama State is ranked 314th in KenPom today and UNM had to rally and outscore the Hornets 29-12 over the final 10 minutes, 30 seconds of their Nov. 26 game in the Pit to get a six-point win.

But just in the past 10 days, two of the Lobos past three wins left some meat on the metrics bone, so to speak.

In the Jan. 21 home win against Fresno State, the Lobos led by 20 points through 35 minutes of a game the computers predicted they should win by 14.

Over the final 4 minutes, 36 seconds, Fresno State closed out on a 23-12 run, giving UNM a comfortable, but not metrics-improving, 83-74 home win.

Tuesday, in the historic blowout road win over UNLV — 28 points is the largest margin of victory the Lobos have ever had over the Runnin' Rebels — they led by 38 points through 35 minutes of play.

UNLV went on a 13-0 run and closed out the game 15-5 over the final 4:14 to lessen the potential computer climb UNM could have benefitted from.

So, do those final moments when the Lobos have let their collective foot off the gas even when the game wasn't in question bother Olen?

Yes and no.

He's not going to get sidetracked by worrying about computer algorithms and how they react to margins of victories. But he is bothered when there's any stretch of game his team doesn't meat his expectations on the court.

"We don't talk about it relative to ratings," Olen said. "We talk about it relative to playing good basketball. That's the expectation. ... tie game (or) up 30, that's irrelevant. We should be executing. We should be playing good basketball. And if you do that, then your efficiency will be whatever it's supposed to be. ...

"We just want to play good basketball, so we feel like, if we're consistent in how we perform, then the scores take care of themselves. We want to focus on every single possession. We care about all of them."

Tough to impress

Olen is one of 31 coaches on the voting panel this season for the USA Today Coaches Top 25 poll — a ballot he says he fills out weekly with his staff's input.

A reporter (not the Journal's) asked Olen, "What would it take to put yourself in the poll?"

Olen's matter of fact answer: "Have to play like a Top 25 team."

The reporter followed up: "You don't think you've done that?"

Olen: "No. I don't think we've — our whole body of work is not at that level."

The Lobos have not been ranked, nor received a vote in either the Associated Press Top 25 or USA Today Coaches Top 25 poll this season.

One and done

The Mountain West's 12-team configuration this season, due to Grand Canyon being added in the offseason, did away with the balanced schedule.

Every team gets one opponent just once at home and another opponent on the road and every other team home and road.

The top five teams in the MW standings have each already completed both of their one-off games. Their records (teams listed by current standings):

2-0 San Diego State (wins at San Jose State, vs. Fresno State)

2-0 New Mexico (wins at UNLV, vs. Wyoming)

2-0 Utah State (wins vs. San Jose State, at Air Force)

2-0 Nevada (wins at Colorado State, vs. Gand Canyon)

0-2 Grand Canyon (losses at Nevada, vs. Colorado State)

Reach Geoff Grammer at ggrammer@abqjournal.com or follow him on Twitter (X) @GeoffGrammer.