Lobos better be careful what they ask for against Colorado State

New Mexico coach Eric Olen has a method to his madness.

He's not the coach with the fifth-best win percentage in all of Division I basketball since the start of last season for nothing.

Defensively, his Lobos rank 36th in the country (out of 365 teams) this season and his UC San Diego Tritons were 30th nationally last season, via KenPom.com. His teams' approach to defense is simple: Protect the paint.

The Lobos (11-3, 2-1 Mountain West) make it hard for teams to get to the rim, often at the expense of leaving space on the perimeter. So much space that only two teams in the country allow a higher rate of 3-point shots.

While the defensive scheme has clearly worked, the Lobos haven't played Colorado State, yet.

CSU (10-4, 1-2 MW) shoots more 3-pointers than any team in the Mountain West and is No. 2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage (42.1%).

Simply put, the Lobos better be careful what they ask for Tuesday night in Moby Arena.

"Yeah, it's a problem," Olen told the Journal on Monday. "On paper, they're a bad matchup."

To say the least.

While UNM gives up a lot of 3s, the Lobos try to be strategic about it by giving up shots beyond the arc that a particular team doesn't hit at a high percentage or by players who aren't that team's best 3-point shooters.

The problem with that scheme against Colorado State is that the entire Rams roster is good at shooting 3-pointers.

Six Rams (only five who are active for this game) have already attempted 30 or more 3-pointers in just 14 games this season. The five active Rams who are averaging more than two attempts per game have the following 3-point shooting percentages vs. Division I competition: 47.1, 46.5, 42.7, 39.4 and 34.3.

The national average is 33.6%.

And if you're looking to find a spot on the floor they don't shoot a relatively high percentage from, well, good luck.

According to the heat map shot chart produced by CBBAnalytics.com, which uses a range of dark blue to dark red to illustrate how much below or above the national average a team shoots from a given spot (blue being cold, red being hot), the graphic is almost all dark red — corner 3s, elbow 3s, 2-point shots, at the rim, etc.

"For us, it's a question of can we execute our scheme at a high enough level to get enough stops, versus trying to adjust to take away some of their strengths," Olen said. "I think when you haven't played the opponent, there's some unknown. So we would probably try to have multiple solutions, options prepared."

So they aren't just going in with one game plan, live or die?

"We try not to, if it's not working, just keep doing it," Olen said with a grin. "Obviously we're aware of some of the matchups. We talk about it every time. In every game, there's potential advantages, disadvantage that you try to amplify or mitigate. That's one that's a pretty clear disadvantage for us relative to scheme. So can we execute what we do at a level that's good enough to get stops, or do we have to adjust?"

Series notes, and the future

UNM leads the all-time series with the Rams 82-53. In Moby Arena, it's a 28-26 CSU advantage. However, the Lobos' 26 wins are more than any other Rams opponent has in the arena, which opened in the 1965-66 season — one year before the Pit opened.

This could be the last time the longtime rivals play each other, though both coaches seem open to continuing the rivalry in nonconference play after this season when the Rams, and four other Mountain West programs, leave to start a new league with the Pac-12 name.

“Abso­lutely. I want to do that,” CSU coach Ali Farokh­manesh said. “We’re gonna need 16 non­con­fer­ence games, too. So, I hope Eric (Olen) wants to.

“It stinks though. To be hon­est, Eric was a friend before he got to New Mex­ico, so I don’t really want to play him. Those are your people and you want to cheer for him, and I’d rather not cheer against him for one game. But yeah, why would we not want to go to the Pit and play? I have to say that now, until I’m actu­ally in that game. But why wouldn’t you want to play at the Pit? Why wouldn’t you want to have New Mex­ico (come to Moby Arena) for our fans? That would mean something to them, too.”

Last season's games

• UNM 87, CSU 65 (Feb. 5 in the Pit): The Lobos held Rams star Nique Clifford to one of only two single-digit scoring games during his stellar senior season and Nelly Junior Joseph had 18 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, five blocks, three steals and was 10-of-13 at the free throw line in a dominant all-around performance.
• UNM 76, CSU 68 (Dec. 28, 2024, in Moby Arena): Donovan Dent had 14 points and six assists and the Lobos used a 21-0 run in the first half to put the game away early, though the Rams made a late charge to make the final score look a little closer than most of the game was played.

Reach Geoff Grammer at ggrammer@abqjournal.com or follow him on Twitter (X) @GeoffGrammer.