Must-win matchup: Five key factors for United vs. FC Tulsa

Ken Sickenger Ken Sickenger Ken Sickenger Journal Staff Writer

Published August 25, 2023 - 7:31 p.m. Modified August 25, 2023 - 7:35 p.m.

Saturday, 7 p.m., 101.7 FM, ESPN+ (streaming), Estrella TV

New Mexico United and Saturday night's opponent, FC Tulsa, are in facing seats on the same unhappy boat.

Both are desperate for a win.

Similarities between the two are striking: NMU and Tulsa will square off at Isotopes Park lugging five-game winless streaks (both are 0-4-1 in their last five) and spinning their wheels on the edge of postseason contention.

"We still have time to make this right," United coach Eric Quill said, "but we can't just talk about it, we have to act."

With 10 games left in the regular season, New Mexico (8-11-5) does have sufficient time to make a playoff push. Quill's team sits in 10th place in the USL Championship's Western Conference but just three points behind seventh-place Phoenix and eighth-place El Paso. The top eight finishers qualify for postseason play.

Tulsa (7-11-8) may be in an even more tenuous position despite currently standing above the USLC Eastern Conference playoff line in eighth place. Tulsa has just eight games left, five of them on the road where it is 2-5-5 this season.

Fair to say both teams will carry a must-win mentality into Saturday's contest.

"We have to switch our mindset for Tulsa," Quill said. "Tulsa has a lot of talent and they'll try to move the ball around and unbalance you. We have to be prepared for that and when our opportunities come, we have capitalize."

Here are five key factors for Saturday's battle.

Something has to give

United has struggled to score during its winless skid, managing just four goals in five games. Tulsa's most glaring issue of late has been defense, with 12 goals conceded over its last five matches. Tulsa goalkeeper Michael Nelson ranks second in the USLC with 76 saves but he's been tested often. Can New Mexico find a way to break him down?

Puzzling

Quill and United sporting director Itamar Keinan have made numerous personnel moves since their midseason arrivals, leaving NMU in an ongoing state of transition. Quill acknowledged that getting new puzzle pieces in place quickly presents a challenge.

Forward Shanyder Borgelin and defender Zico Bailey, the club's latest additions, made their New Mexico debuts in the last two games.

"We're very aware that bringing guys involves taking risks with chemistry," Quill said, "but we have 100% confidence in the guys we've brought in. There's just a learning curve involved and relationships take time to build. Everyone wants it now, we want it now, but we'll keep striving and hopefully next game we'll see it."

Playing the odds

The USLC posted playoff odds for both conferences Friday and both NMU and Tulsa currently rank as long shots. The last two Western Conference spots remain up for grabs with Phoenix (74% playoff probability), El Paso (66%), Rio Grande Valley (33%) and New Mexico (32%) in the mix. Tulsa was rated with a 25% playoff probability in the Eastern Conference.

Welcome back

Defender Rashid Tetteh will make his first Isotopes Park appearance as a visiting player Saturday. Tetteh, who spent four seasons with United (2019-22) has appeared in 23 games for FC Tulsa this season with 27 interceptions and 62 clearances.

Even Steven

In addition to their current winless streaks, NMU and Tulsa have identical passing accuracy (79.8%). Methodical Tulsa passes considerably more often, however, ranking second in the USLC with 12,088 attempts — 1,547 more than United.

Players to watch

Tulsa (7-11-8): Clinging to the eighth playoff position in the USL Championship Eastern Conference, Tulsa has its share of impressive individual numbers. Forward Phillip Goodrum, for example, ranks second in the league with 57 shots and is tied for 10th with 9 goals. Midfielder Alazar Milo Yosef ranks fifth with 42 chances created, and veteran Marcus Epps has a strong overall stat line with 6 goals, 3 assists, 22 chances created and 38 shots. The same is true on the defensive side, where primary goalkeeper Michael Nelson ranks second in the USLC with 76 saves. But the individual numbers have not added up to team success on either end of the pitch. Tulsa has just 30 goals scored in 26 matches (four fewer than New Mexico in 24 matches) and has conceded 43 goals, the third highest total in the league.

New Mexico (8-11-5): United has been producing more quantity on the attacking end recently but quality has not followed suit. NMU ranked last in the USLC for much of the season in shot attempts and has climbed four notches to 20th with 256. The extra shots have not translated to goals, however. United has scored just four during its five-game winless streak and has generally gotten off to slow starts. Attackers Amando Moreno, Shanyder Borgelin and Jacobo Reyes have spent little time playing together but they must find a way to start capitalizing on scoring chances and allow NMU to play from in front more often. Moreno (7 goals, 31 shots) has been the most dangerous player for NMU but he's often swarmed by opposing defenders when the ball is at his feet. United needs others to convert to open space for Moreno.

Noteworthy: A rather lengthy injury list did not help New Mexico's cause in Wednesday's 2-1 loss to Oakland Roots SC. Regulars Daniel Bruce, Nicky Hernandez and Austin Yearwood were ruled out with nagging injuries prior to the game. Hernandez has missed NMU's last two games. Also on the injury report were Chris Wehan, who is rehabbing from a lower-body injury and has not played since June, and Cristian Nava (out for the season with a knee injury).