NFL conference championship forecast: Will the Bills or Commanders pull off the upset?

The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are favored to win their NFL conference title games at home Sunday and meet in the Super Bowl for the second time in three years.

But what are the chances the Buffalo Bills and/or the Washington Commanders will pull an upset and reach the title game for the first time in more than three decades? Pretty good, actually.

Now for a closer look at the NFC and AFC finales. And at both venues, weather should not be an issue.

The point spreads and over/under numbers are from teamrankings.com.

No. 6 Washington Commanders (14-5) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (16-3), 1 p.m., Fox

Eagles -6 | 47.5 O/U

The Eagles have been on a tear since their Week 5 bye, going 14-1. But that defeat came at Washington five weeks ago when rookie QB Jayden Daniels threw five TD passes in the Commanders’ 36-33 victory. Washington won despite committing five turnovers.

That was quite a performance by Daniels against a team that had the top-ranked defense and yielded only 17 other scoring throws all season.

And he was equally good in last week’s 45-31 win at top-seeded Detroit on Saturday as an 8-point underdog, but on a down note, the defense yielded a season-high 521 yards.

That was the Commanders’ second straight road playoff win after beating No. 3 seed Tampa Bay as a 3-point underdog in Round 1. All other road teams are 0-8 this postseason.

Now Daniels will attempt to become the first rookie QB to ever win a conference title matchup and play in the league championship game. The last to try was San Francisco’s Brock Purdy two years ago. He and the 49ers lost at Philadelphia 31-7.

Of course, if Washington isn’t able to contain rushing champion Saquon Barkley it might not matter how well Daniels plays. In two games against Washington’s 30th-ranked rushing defense, including a 26-18 Eagles home win in Week 10, he had 146- and 150-yard games.

On the injury front, the Commanders will be without right guard Sam Cosmi (torn ACL). For the Eagles, center Cam Jurgens has been dealing with a back injury (questionable). And then there’s the knee issue for QB Jalen Hurts, who got hurt in the third quarter last week in a 28-22 win over the LA Rams. He kept on playing but didn’t run the ball again.

IN SUMMARY: If Hurts doesn’t have an active role in the running game, and if his injury prevents him from being elusive in the pocket, more attention can be paid to Barkley. And don’t forget former Eagles TE Zach Ertz, who starred on their 2017 Super Bowl team. He’s caught seven TD passes for Washington the past nine games, after having one in the first 10.

FORECAST: Commanders 26, Eagles 20

No. 3 Buffalo Bills (15-4) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (16-2), 4:30 p.m., CBS

Chiefs -1.5 | 48.5 O/U

This will be the fourth postseason meeting between these AFC powerhouses the past five years, with the Chiefs winning the previous three, including last season in Buffalo 27-24 as a 2.5-point underdog in the divisional round.

The Chiefs then went on to win their second straight Super Bowl and third since 2019.

But in the regular season, it’s been a different story. The Bills were 30-21 winners over the visiting Chiefs in Week 11. And from 2021-23, the Bills won each season at Arrowhead with QB Josh Allen having seven TD passes with one INT. This season, though, KC is 9-0 at home.

And since Patrick Mahomes has taken over at QB for coach Andy Reid’s team in 2018, the Chiefs have gone 11-2 in home playoff games, with both losses coming in overtime in AFC title games.

KC and Buffalo both won at home last week, with Kansas City topping Houston, 23-14, despite being outgained 429-261 and running 25 fewer offensive plays. Buffalo, meanwhile, squeezed past Baltimore 27-25 thanks in large part to a dropped pass in the end zone by the Ravens in the final minute while trying for a 2-point conversion.

FUN FACT: When Buffalo eliminated Baltimore it marked the 12th consecutive time since 2001 that a team had outgained its opposition by more than 100 yards a game in the regular season and then failed to win the Super Bowl. The previous year it happened was in 2021 when the Bills had a margin of 109.1 yards a game and wound up losing at KC in the divisional round.

IN SUMMARY: Most teams that play at Arrowhead have trouble dealing with the crowd noise in addition to Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, pass-rush specialist Chris Jones, etc.

That’s not the case for Allen who will be operating behind an offensive line that has allowed the fewest sacks this season and behind a running game led by James Cook, who tied for the league lead with 16 rushing TDs. The Bills have absolutely shown to be more potent on offense with 62 TDs overall this season. Kansas City had only 41. Plus, Buffalo has enjoyed the return from injury of three key LBs, including Matt Milano.

FORECAST: Bills 31, Chiefs 24

Last week: 2-2 straight up, 1-1-2 ATS

Season total: 27-21-4 ATS