Olen: Bubble-riding Lobos have 'a lot to play for'

The home stretch of the college basketball season is most definitely upon us.

With fewer than 20 days in the Mountain West's regular season, the UNM Lobos find themselves squarely in the NCAA Tournament bubble discussion. The team has six games and the MW tournament to make a move. 

The problem for a team like the Lobos (19-6, 10-4 Mountain West) is that programs in power conferences — sometimes with many more losses than mid-majors — have an easier path to the tournament than teams outside the power-conference structure. 

That's because those power conference teams have so many more opportunities to improve their NET rankings.

So, what does Eric Olen and his staff do when hosting an Air Force team on Tuesday night that is winless in conference and rated so poorly that the Lobos' NET ranking may be hurt if they don't win by at least 30 points?

"Just prepare the same way we do for every game," Olen said Monday.

Later, he elaborated.

"I think everyone understands where we are," Olen said. "That's why we try to take the kind of the same approach (to all games), right? ... I think this is a stretch where it really is important, because it's not even just one game. We want to be possession-focused. We want to focus on every possession and then move on to the next and try to live in each moment and try to win each sort of rep and possession. ...

"That's where you have to be (going) into the postseason, as the stakes get bigger, I think it's important for your focus to narrow on what you need to do. And so we want to start that process now. We don't want to show up in March and be like, 'Okay, now let's focus on each possession.' ... If we can really lean into that now, we get reps where the stakes are going to go up each game as we go into the postseason, etc., etc., it just continues to build."

UNM had a bye over the weekend and hasn't played since Wednesday's road win over Grand Canyon.

Olen made clear his team overlooking an Air Force program that is 3-22 (0-14 MW) and with a NET ranking of 346 would be a big disappointment. 

"We're in a good position — where we want to be, but we also haven't done anything. We haven't accomplished anything," Olen said. "We've played some good basketball. We've had some nights that weren't great. ...

"We got a lot to play for. That's where you want to be right now, middle of February, going into March. You want to be playing meaningful games. We are. And so it's our responsibility to put good basketball on the floor as the stakes get higher in those situations."

Series notes

The Lobos lead the all-time series with Air Force, 69-27. That includes a 39-5 home record and 39-3 in the Pit.

UNM has won its last four games against Air Force — a 42-point win on Jan. 10 at the Academy (91-49), a 2024-25 season sweep and an 82-56 win in the Mountain West Tournament on March 13, 2024.

The last Air Force win in the series? Well, Lobo fan, proceed over the next few lines at your own risk.

On Feb. 24, 2024, in the Pit, a 21-6 Lobos squad ranked in the top 40 of both KenPom and the NET rankings hosted an 8-17 Air Force team that would finish that season ranked 264 in the KenPom rankings. A Lobo starting five of Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr., Donovan Dent, JT Toppin and Nelly Junior Joseph were unable to put the Falcons away and then-sophomore forward Rytis Petraitis knocked down a 3-pointer with 7 seconds remaining, giving the visitors a 78-77 win in the Pit.

A month later in Las Vegas, Nevada, the Lobos became the first team to win four games in four days — which included a win over Air Force in the first round — to win the MW Tournament giving them an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament.

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Chairman said the Lobos would not have made the NCAA Tournament that season without the automatic berth. While the Air Force game was not mentioned specifically, it was by far the worst loss on UNM's schedule that year, likely proving to be the would-be nail in the Lobos Big Dance coffin had they not won the MW Tournament.

Come on down!

Thousands of UNM fans will soon head to Las Vegas for the Mountain West men's and women's basketball tournaments, held March 7-14. During Monday's press conference, Olen was asked what he would say to encourage even more fans to go to Sin City.

"I mean, I hope everybody comes. But, I'd like to see them tomorrow night (for the Air Force game)," he said. "I'd like to see them here against San Diego State (Feb. 28). We have a lot of things before Vegas, so hopefully they're here tomorrow night, and we'll get to Vegas when that time comes."

Fans looking for a ride to Las Vegas, might consider calling Bobby Aragon with Amazing Jumps, Tents and Events. He's running a promotion that includes a round-trip bus ride to Las Vegas, three nights' stay at the Excalibur and rides to and from the Thomas & Mack Center for $495 per person (shared room) or $625 per person (single occupancy). Call Aragon at (505) 974-0215.

Reach Geoff Grammer at ggrammer@abqjournal.com or follow him on Twitter (X) @GeoffGrammer.