What are the odds Diego Pavia wins the Heisman?

In the preseason, he was 150-1 to win the Heisman Trophy — not the longest of long shots, but not all too likely either. 

Saturday, Diego Pavia might just take it home anyway. 

Pavia — Vanderbilt’s swaggering 6-foot, 207-pound quarterback and an Albuquerque native — was named a Heisman finalist Monday along with Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. 

The Volcano Vista High grad is the first Commodore in program history to be named a finalist. If he wins, Pavia would become the first native New Mexican to claim college football’s most prestigious honor. 

“I think he’s the best player in college football,” Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea said in October. “That’s what I think. So you can’t watch him play and not realize what a game-changer he is. And there are a lot of good players.” 

The only holdup: The markets don’t exactly project a win for Pavia. 

On most betting platforms, the former New Mexico State quarterback is listed well behind Mendoza, a 6-foot-5, 225-pound Cal transfer who led Indiana to its first Big Ten title since 1967.  Pavia was, however, a relative long shot at the start of November. Could his late season push (including a strong performance in a 45-24 win over Tennessee) be enough to fuel a major upset? 

Saturday, we’ll see. Until then, a look at where Pavia falls in the Heisman odds, as of Thursday, Dec. 11: 

Draft Kings 

Fernando Mendoza: -1800 

Diego Pavia: +900 

Jeremiyah Love: +25000

Julian Sayin: +50000 

BetMGM 

Fernando Mendoza: -1200

Diego Pavia: +700

Jeremiyah Love: +15000

Julian Sayin: +50000 

FanDuel 

Fernando Mendoza: -2500

Julian Sayin: +190 

Diego Pavia: +1400

Jeremiyah Love: +2500

BetRivers 

Fernando Mendoza: -1000

Diego Pavia: +650 

Jeremiyah Love: +30000

Julian Sayin: +40000 

bet365 

Fernando Mendoza: -1100

Diego Pavia: +650

Jeremiyah Love: +15000

Julian Sayin: +50000 

Per BetMGM, these odds imply as much as a 92.3% chance for Mendoza (2,980 yards, 33 touchdowns, 6 interceptions) to win the Heisman. That he had the opportunity to play (and win) an extra game in the Big Ten Championship has only helped his odds; per FanDuel, Mendoza (+155) was only a slight favorite over Pavia (+155) before leading the Hoosiers to a 13-10 win over Ohio State. 

He also has a historical trend working in his favor: Mendoza was named the Walter Camp National Player of the Year on Wednesday. The last three Walter Camp National Player of the Year winners and 10 of the last 12 have also taken the Heisman home; Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III (2021) and Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (2018) were the only exceptions in that span. 

Of course, the odds were already stacked against Pavia before the season — what difference does it make now? 

"The Heisman Trophy winner goes to the best player in college football," Pavia said in late November. "I believe that to be myself, you check the numbers ... There (are) two things that don't lie to you: numbers and tape. I've been taught that since I was young. You go check that out. 

“I feel like I'm undoubtedly the best player in college football."