POPULAR BOB'S NFL FORECAST

With the 3 and 4 seeds gone, can a 5 or 6 take it all?

Top-seeded teams haven't done well in past postseasons, leaving the door open for a bottom-seeded team to take the Lombardi trophy

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to the backfield against Jacksonville in an NFL wild card game, Sunday in Jacksonville, Fla. The Bills defeated the Jaguars 27-24.
Published Modified

The NFL playoffs have a unusual look entering the divisional round with all four teams seeded third or fourth having been eliminated.

Could this be the year that a fifth or sixth seed goes all the way?

Since 2007 there have been two No. 6s and two No. 5s to do so. Only once in the past six seasons has a top seed hoisted the Super Bowl trophy.

Now for a look at this week's games and hopes for a perfect forecasting record:

SATURDAY

No. 6 Buffalo Bills (13-5) at No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3), 2:30 p.m.

Broncos -1.5 (46 O/U)

The Broncos, who have the NFL's second-ranked defense, are back as a top seed for the first time in 10 years. That 2015 team is the only one since World War II to win the championship despite having the league's worst-rated passer (Peyton Manning).

Now Denver has QB Bo Nix, who's ranked 26th.

Buffalo, meanwhile, is coming off a 27-24 wild-card victory over Jacksonville, its first road playoff triumph since the 1992 season when ex-Lobos coach Marv Levy was in charge.

But now the Bills will be working on a short week and facing a team off a bye. A key for the squad is to keep QB Josh Allen on his feet. In Week 16 he sprained a foot and then last week injured a finger and twisted a knee. Alas, he's not on the injury report.

And don't disregard how well Buffalo's oft-maligned defense has played. This season they held three former Super Bowl-winning QBs to less than a 50 percent completion rate — Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.

Forecast: Bills 27, Broncos 21

No-so-fun fact: Denver has twice lost as a home favorite as a No. 1 seed, most notably in 1996 when Jacksonville won at Mile High as a 14-point underdog, 30-27, the biggest upset ever in this round.

No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3), 6 p.m.

Seahawks -7 (45 O/U)

The oblique injury suffered by Seattle QB Sam Darnold during practice Thursday has generated headlines. He's listed as questionable and reports say he expects to play.

The 49ers' offense also has its problems. Already missing is TE George Kittle, who tore an ACL in last week's 23-19 victory at Philadelphia. And WR Ricky Pearsall is still questionable (knee). Plus, SF will be playing on short rest vs. a team off a bye.

The hunch here is that Darnold's sloppy ball-handling — he was third in INTs with 14 and tied for first with 11 fumbles — will cause Seattle trouble. Just not enough to lose the game.

Forecast: Seahawks 24, 49ers 23

Fun fact: Since 1988, teams on short rest in the divisional round vs. a team off a bye have gone 11-25, but 22-14 ATS.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) passes the ball during an NFL wild-card game against Carolina, Saturday in Charlotte, N.C.

SUNDAY

No. 5 Houston Texans (13-5) at No. 2 New England Patriots (15-3), 1 p.m.

Patriots -3.5 (40.5 O/U)

This will be the third division-round playoff meeting between the teams dating to the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. In their 2016 meeting, a 34-16 New England victory, the Patriots were 15.5-point choices, the largest spread in this round in the past 27 years.

A key matchup Sunday will be the league's top-rated QB, New England's Drake Maye, facing the league's top-ranked defense, which flustered Pittsburgh 30-6 in a wild-card road victory Monday night.

Last week Maye got a taste of facing a top-10 defense for the first time this season in a 16-3 victory over the seventh-seeded LA Chargers. He was sacked five times and had his third-worst passer rating of the season.

And it could get worse this week against a Texans team that has given four QBs their worst rating in a game this season, including Buffalo's Josh Allen.

But Houston has its warts on offense, which were especially noticeable on center-QB exchanges Monday. QB C.J. Stroud was charged with five fumbles (two lost) against Pittsburgh. And leading receiver Nico Collins is out (concussion).

Forecast: Patriots 21, Texans 13

Fun Fact: New England outgained foes by a norm of 84.2 yards a game during the regular season, the greatest margin for any squad this year. In 2001, the Pats had a negative margin of 29.4 yards and still won the championship. No other team in history has even reached an NFL title game with such a poor differential.

No. 5 LA Rams (13-5) at No. 2 Chicago Bears (12-6), 4:30 p.m.

Rams -4 (48 O/U)

The Rams enter the weekend as the heaviest division-round road favorite in the past 45 years.

LA, which has the league's top-ranked offense, won last week at Carolina 34-31. The Bears, meanwhile, overcame a 21-3 halftime deficit and were 31-27 home victors over Green Bay.

But the Rams had a built-in excuse for their close call in that they not only were traveling from coast to coast for the second time in three weeks but also playing their second straight game on short rest against a foe that was on regular rest. This week they'll have an extra day to prepare.

This game will be played in frigid temperatures, with the forecast on NFLweather.com predicting 21 degrees at kickoff (wind chill 8).

This will be the second coldest game LA quarterback Matthew Stafford has played during his 17-year career (as best as I can determine).

Of course, the Bears know a lot more about playing in frosty weather and participated in the coldest game this season (8 degrees, -2 wind chill) in beating visiting Cleveland 31-3 on Dec. 14.

The big question is whether the Bears' 29th-ranked defense can slow that powerhouse Rams offense, especially with the loss of star LB T.J. Edwards.

Forecast: Rams 35, Bears, 16

Forecast

Last week's picks: 4-2 against spread; 4-2 straight up

Season total: 130-137-8 ATS; 162-93-1 SU

Powered by Labrador CMS