New Mexico political battleground shifts with Biden exit

New Mexico historically has been a blue-leaning state in national political elections, but in recent days some Democratic leaders vocally worried that the state would go red if President Joe Biden insisted on a reelection bid.

All that changed on Sunday.

But whether Democrats and independent voters in New Mexico would be motivated to vote for Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, was not a given, said Albuquerque political analyst Brian Sanderoff.

“Any time you make changes you take risks, but I suspect the majority of Democrats will fall behind Harris,” Sanderoff told the Journal.

Harris, after Biden’s announcement that he would drop out of the race, was considered the top candidate to replace him. Biden endorsed her and said he would dedicate money from his campaign to electing Harris.

Biden won the presidential race in New Mexico in 2020 by nearly 11 percentage points over Donald Trump. Trump lost by 8 points in 2016 in New Mexico to Hillary Clinton.

But questions about 81-year-old Biden’s age, his fitness for the job, and his debate performance against Trump in June created doubts.

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat in her second term, voiced concerns in a meeting with Biden and a group of governors several weeks ago. She wasn’t alone in her fears that Biden might end up losing New Mexico in the Nov. 5 general election.

New Mexico U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, a Democrat seeking re-election against political newcomer Republican Nella Domenici, came out publicly last week to urge Biden to drop out. So did U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D-N.M., who is up against Republican Yvette Herrell as he seeks re-election in what could be a tight race in the 2nd Congressional district.

“Many members of Congress were not only concerned about the viability of another Joe Biden term but were also concerned about themselves (winning re-election),” Sanderoff told the Journal.

A few national opinion polls linked to Democrats showed Trump was pulling ahead in traditional swing states, and that left some wondering if such close races would position New Mexico as a battleground state.

“The trajectory for the Democrats was moving in the wrong direction in the swing states, and so it’s now a matter of whether that course can be reversed,” Sanderoff said.

Harris has time to put a campaign together, but the general election is “right around the corner,” he said. If Democrats had an open convention in Chicago in August and numerous candidates were running, that would likely “create more dissension, and time is running out.”

“It’s obviously very early in the process given she hasn’t been nominated,” Sanderoff added.