As residents leave, immigrant labor remains central to New Mexico’s workforce, experts say

The latest report from the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions shows the state’s population growth over the last five years was driven almost entirely by international migration, raising questions among economists on how the Trump administration’s immigration policies could affect the state’s economy.

New Mexico has grown slower than 40 other states in the last quarter-century — and has lagged behind all of its neighbors in the Western U.S., many of which have seen significant population growth in the years since 2020 from Americans looking for warmer weather and a cheaper cost of living compared to major coastal cities.

More Americans are leaving the Land of Enchantment than are moving to it. Between 2019 and 2024, New Mexico lost more than 10,000 residents to other states. Deaths also outpaced births during that same period, shrinking the population by another 5,000 people. The state’s overall population growth — 1.6% since 2019, less than half the national rate — was driven entirely by the 31,671 international migrants who came to New Mexico in the last five years.

“The out-migration of recent college graduates and young families and folks who are early in their careers is a very alarming trend in the state,” said economist Kelly O’Donnell. “When the economy is less healthy and you’re experiencing out-migration, that dependence on immigrant labor is going to increase and make us more vulnerable to changes at the federal level.”

The Trump administration’s aggressive deportation policies have already begun to affect the immigrant population nationwide. In the first six months since President Donald Trump began his second term, the number of immigrants in the U.S. declined for the first time in more than 50 years, according to a report from the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan think tank. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced Tuesday that 2 million immigrants had left the country since January, either via deportation or voluntary departure.

Immigrants make up around a tenth of New Mexico’s population and 12.8% of its labor force, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the American Immigration Council, a nonprofit advocacy group.

“Even in states with really flourishing economies, immigrants are very critical,” O’Donnell said, noting that foreign-born workers often fill jobs that may require specialized skills, or others that Americans simply don’t want.

Almost a quarter of New Mexico’s construction workers are immigrants, according to the AIC data, in addition to 18% of workers in manufacturing, 18% of arts, entertainment, hospitality and food service workers, 12.9% of workers in health care and social assistance, and 12.7% of workers in education.

Around 30% of New Mexico’s immigrant population is living in the country without legal status, according to the data. Undocumented immigrants make up 3% of the state’s population and 4.7% of New Mexico’s workforce.

The construction and hospitality industries have the highest share of undocumented workers in the state, at 13.4% and 11%, respectively.

“Immigrant workers are not just essential, they are the backbone of New Mexico’s economy and prosperity,” said Marcela Díaz, executive director of Santa Fe-based immigrant rights nonprofit Somos Un Pueblo Unido. “But while our state depends on immigrant labor, these workers and their families too often face unsafe conditions, exclusion from safety nets, and the constant threat of deportation.”

Amy Barela, chairwoman of the New Mexico Republican Party, said until complete information on deportations and voluntary removals from New Mexico under Trump is available, there is no way to determine how the administration’s policies have had an effect.

“Here in New Mexico, despite the fearmongering of the left, there is no data showing any damage to our state’s economy from the enforcement of immigration laws,” Barela said in a statement.

Trump, Barela said, has acknowledged the challenges some sectors may face without immigrant labor, specifically farming and hospitality.

“His leadership strikes the right balance between protecting American workers, enforcing the rule of law, and ensuring long-term prosperity,” Barela said.

In some parts of the state, New Mexico is already feeling the repercussions of the Trump administration’s policies.

Homeland Security Investigations agents in June raided a dairy farm in Lovington and arrested 11 workers. Isaak Bos, the farm’s owner, told the Journal that federal agents required him to fire 24 more employees on the spot. Bos said the former employees had provided counterfeit paperwork.

“It takes 100% of the labor force, so no day is off right now,” Bos said. “It’s detrimental for our cattle. We’re barely able to keep going. And the next problem is going to be the labor I have left, pushing it to the limit.”